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I trade mostly by following long-term trends, using daily and weekly charts. My two main reasons for trend-following have to do with related but separate probabilities - 1. price in a trend will probably continue rather than reverse 2. if price consolidates, it will probably not hit my...

Me neither. It would be nice for a successful hedger, not a theoretical hedger, to demonstrate how this has helped them as a private retail trader.

So in a very real sense, the best strategy for you is not derived mathematically, its the one you can sleep most soundly with and wake up tomorrow and trade most diligently. Go for it I say.

Some people are just unhappy in themselves. They can only be happy if there are other people around that they can run down. In just a minute they're going to be nasty to you.......

You have diligently carried out back-testing over 5 years. But can you say which you would be able, confident, and happy to trade continuously - and to scale up - over the next 5 years?

This is a mean and narrow-minded comment with regards Xela's work here and elsewhere. Very few posters have given out so much of their hard-earned real experience to assist traders of all types and you cannot be so ignorant as to not know this. As for other traders being taken in, that's just...

Surely the object of religion is found in the next world, not this? Surely the worship of your god or gods is to ensure your happy progression into and through the next world? What happens on this earth is very secondary. A helpful outcome of religion is a widely accepted set of morals...

This is such a perceptive post, beyond essential to read and digest. All the fuss and argument over whether MA cross-over strategies work or whether double tops and head-and-shoulders and pin bars work and whether the Turtle system works any more - its all BS. It serves no purpose except to...

Nice! Actually, I found the same - the more I tried to analyse and revise out my losing trades, the less money I made. I am now determined to use my brain as little as possible. (you know what I mean....)

As long as it doesn't become a trend............

Picking winners from trades opened is a non-starter for me, I just can't differentiate at the initiating stage. So all trades are opened with the same capital risk and a pyramid trade order triggers each time a trade makes break-even. Capital at risk is never increased but return on capital...

Countless sets of cosmetic detail. But no matter how good these are, trying to trade in the wrong style for the individual leads to failure.

Trading doesn't mean day-trading. Holding over-night doesn't mean investing. I don't believe you don't know this.

Aren't there essentially two systems only? - Trade WITH the direction that price has been travelling. Or trade AGAINST the direction that price has been travelling. Both work if you respect their inherent structural "rules" and use a risk management protocol (that might be common to both). The...

Isn't this equally a good argument for a trend-following long? Nasdaq printed one of my re-entry long signals on 27/09, another on 27/10, and no exit pattern yet. That's potentially 400pts plus.

Why would anyone have been short this?

This standard definition of a trend is correct and confirms it but does not rank it by preference for an actual trade. If using a trend-following strategy, multiple targets will be appropriate, as trends are only seen in any given single market for a minority of the time. It is therefore very...

Irrelevant.

If you try to trade the way hedge funds do, you should expect a similar result to what they get. They make a very small percentage of profit, maybe about 5% a year. They do not benefit in proportion with outperformance by their selected markets, though they have very little risk of wipe-out...

He's already "gone to meet his Mentor?"