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Forex trading, daily or intraday is a negative sum game and to make money in it you need to outsmart market makers, something that only very few people know how and can do.

Model 1 is realistic.

Equivalent to using a shorter period MA.

No hindsight necessary with QE. Bernanke was shouting at you to buy stocks all years along.

Socialist nonsense considering that the wealth is mostly paper stock but they pay their millions of employees in hard cash.

Socialist nonsense considering that the wealth is mostly paper stock but they pay their millions of employees in hard cash.

They were a currency speculator. Forex is a zero-sum game. Someone made what they lost. Possibly some guy like Soros. Forex is hard. I think their decision is good and longer-term they have matched S&P TR. Only over the last two years they had a large drawdown.

I had some success this year trading a mechanical system but with no direct automation because I'm not that advanced yet but I followed all the trades. There are many experts in this area. One key to developing a successful system is finding a hypothesis that carries very low data-mining bias...

Wasn't this a currency trading fund? Performance wan't not good for two years in a row and possible some big clients withdrew. Had they used an ma cross on S&P 500 they would have made close to 26%. Wrong market choice...

There are more books on trading than successful traders.

Good book by Joe Ruinall "How to become a billionaire with scalping and daytrading" another one is by Bob Lostitall "How I stole billions from market makers" Enjoy!:)

De-trend the data and see if it works. Then you could also try the system on E-mini data. I think if it does not work well there it may be fitted but not necessarily. Did you include sufficient slippage? See what happens to intraday E-mini trading according to this randomization study: 100% ruin...

Imo you should use as many bars possible as needed to include all possible normal market conditions but as @abattia showed with examples that depends on distribution population and required confidence. But if you are trading E-mini intraday you should pay attention to this randomization study...

Yep, since you decided to have position of 1,000 contracts in an illiquid market, when you close it you will end up where or lower than the price you started. Most liquidity algorithms that I know of like those used by institutional for their hedge fund clients are highly proprietary. You have...

You need to find an edge before you start, what that is based on, otherwise you will be wasting your time.

Is maybe some selection bias involved here?

Positive autocorrelation was very high in the 70s - 80s and high in the 90s. Then it just went away. Many people made a lot of money with simple methods like the one you described. There was a very strong uptrend in the 90s. It was a matter of discipline more than anything else. Now even...

So you get many signals and you want to manage them, i.e. which ones to take? If not, your post is quite abstract in terms of what type of management you are looking for. The scanning you use is equivalent to some selection process that given a large pool of stocks will most of the time...

+1

It depends on the stop-loss. Risk of 1% is not necessarily a stop of 1%.