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fyi...I usually wait until after 9:50ish-10ish ny time to take any stock trades because the bulk of the order flow has been set and the stock will usually drift in one direction...

slight downside bias as of now on s&p..so longs are risky considering no signs of buying whatsoever...

be careful.... broader market is in chop and hasn't picked any side over the other yet...

MOS has a very good shot of getting back down to 57.....no..not because of the gap...something else try and hang with it..

subbed...on the basis that I like what I see :)

Spoken like a true perennial loser. Dude you just curve-fitted and you didn't even realize it :D The markets will eat your perfectly crafted, carefully constructed, tirelessly researched, and neatly packed statistics and send them out it's rear-end....

Maybe you could also combine with volatility bands. I did a study a few years back and 80% volatility bands contain price 80% of time, and 70% bands contain 70% of time, etc. For stocks, volatility bands can be calculated here: http://pitrading.com/volatility_bands.htm Fur futures, you...

obviously....but would you get similar results as in a bull market? hhhmmm....

the question that probably needs to be answered is how does the method perform in a bear market when earnings expectations are slashed across the board? Would be great if a study could be performed ahead of the inevitable bear market..

those numbers are the proverbial "holy grail" which all professional traders strive for. If you can keep it up then all you will need to do is scale this thing....

Ryan, you are bad to the bone....I laugh at all of the expert naysayers predicting your doom looks like you've got something golden here :)

nice job

go back and read the post again..

you're kidding me right? saying you made 3.75 points is NOT the same as 1.25 points per contract...that's basic math

that's not correct...you can't add them..your average is 1.25 points edit: still not too shabby

Here's a nice website that quickly classifies the various options strategies according to bullish, bearish, or neutral bias: http://www.theoptionsguide.com/

any news?

what percentage of stocks would you say revert back to the 80-week moving average after an earnings miss?

If you expect the ES to move higher from the close, then a better way to play your strategy would probably be to look for continuation patterns (flags, penants, etc) between the RTH close of prior day and RTH open of current day.. ...of course that would require you to take trades in the...

A strict mechanical system will ALWAYS fail over time. Anything based on past data in the way you described is simply a CURVE-FIT. Why? because CONTEXT is missing. Edit: ..and NO..the fact that the ES has been in an "uptrend" is NOT, by itself, context