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  1. L

    Data point vs. parameter

    Yes, I agree that would be ideal. To some extent, since my algorithm is based off of an insight derived from another trader with whom I have corresponded for about 6 years now, I look at the positive results he has had using that insight as additional validation of the method and he has been...
  2. L

    Data point vs. parameter

    Well, I actually don't have multiple systems, I have one. The closest analogy to it would be Elliott Wave, where every bit of market action is accounted for in some way within the system, only I have fixed what I consider Elliott's flaws, e.g. I removed the entire portion of the Elliott...
  3. L

    nice spike

    Today's action is one reason I only use stop limit orders and limit. If the market is moving too fast to fill me on entries, then I will just wait for the next trade to come along. If I need to sell at the market on an exit and I don't get the greatest fill, well, at least I am out. Probably...
  4. L

    Data point vs. parameter

    Thanks for the pointer to your earlier thread. I agree with your premise, as shown in your example of SPY vs. F, that a chart of any of these assets would be difficult to identify by look alone and that a deeper analysis would be required to differentiate a chart of CL vs. ES vs. E6, which is...
  5. L

    How many points is reasonable?

    I hope you divorced your wife. Once you start making serious money, you're going to want a new one anyway. :)
  6. L

    Data point vs. parameter

    In the course of documenting my ES trades, I collect a number of data points that don't seem to have any relationship to the outcome of a given trade, but I collect them because I initially thought they might and now I want to stay consistent. My issue is that as I am bringing that same...
  7. L

    TA debunked

    Would you ask Coke for a link to their formula? Have you ever read academic papers "proving" TA can't work? They test the most naive forms of TA possible, so they can state that they tested dozens of "rules" and none of them worked. Besides, would you consider an algorithm to be TA? I...
  8. L

    Are traders particularly superstitious?

    Yes, that was just me studying one person. His expectancy was around 40% using just Elliott Wave. He and I became collaborators for a while. The reason I only studied his track record was because I could not find anyone else who even came close to being successful with Elliott Wave, so I knew it...
  9. L

    How many points is reasonable?

    No, they are not. I've said on a couple of occasions (and others who seem to know what they are talking about have said similar things) that you can get up to about 3 points/day maximum over time. I'd say anything close to 2 points/day puts you in superstar territory. 2 ES points/day...
  10. L

    How many points is reasonable?

    It's all well and good to say that and it sounds all heroic, but doing it is something completely different, which is why you are on this message board saying it rather than already doing it. Which is also precisely why there is no one on the planet who is getting 20 points per day in the ES or...
  11. L

    How many points is reasonable?

    Right, but before Bannister ran his sub-4 minute mile, someone else ran a mile in 4:02 or something similar. So, before we go saying that the OP can get 20 points per day, how about we find someone who's getting 19, or 18 or 17? Also, I've got to ask if all it is is a matter of mind over...
  12. L

    Are traders particularly superstitious?

    I did a study of the trade results of someone using Elliott Wave over a 5 year period and found that he actually had positive expectancy. I also read a Credit Suisse paper analyzing a number of different technical approaches, including Fibonacci, which they did not find useful. Haven't...
  13. L

    4 things the goverment can do right now to make the US economy Roar

    I know liberals would never go for it. I just like forcing them to put up or shut up.
  14. L

    4 things the goverment can do right now to make the US economy Roar

    It's not even really about "local" vs. "centralized", it's about a total divergence of worldview. But, in your first post, you basically advocated that the GOP disband. What would that result in if not completely centralized control out of D.C.? Or, to accommodate Obama, Chicago? Again, if...
  15. L

    4 things the goverment can do right now to make the US economy Roar

    Last I heard, Bull Connor, along with all the other bogeymen from the 1950's and 1960's, is dead. Plus, as I said, you could set up a fund to enable a sort of "population transfer". If there are people in Alabama counties who want to live in NYC, they'd be able to do that before the actual...
  16. L

    4 things the goverment can do right now to make the US economy Roar

    No, the best thing would be to split into two separate countries, like the Czechs and the Slovaks did. The split should be done at the county level, since there is already a pre-existing government infrastructure at that level and that is the geographical level which probably best reflects the...
  17. L

    How many points is reasonable?

    Traders' only decision is whether to get in or get out of the market. Everything else is out of their control. If I "decide" one day to make 5 points and I don't, is that because my "decision" wasn't decisive enough? No, it's because my trades weren't in synch with the market's direction. I...
  18. L

    Jack Hershey Method Since 2008

    If Hershey could actually do what he claims, Jack Schwager (and every financial journalist in the world) would be camped out on Hershey's doorstep begging to interview him. But he can't and they ain't.
  19. L

    Why it's not worth training friends...

    You answered exactly 0% of my question. While it is true that you have to trade bear moves slightly differently from bull moves, it is no less true that bear moves have rules of their own. Why do you find yourself needing to universalize what is clearly your limited experience? Can't you...
  20. L

    95% of all traders lose... do they really?

    It's kind of interesting that you mention Thorp, a proponent of Kelly, which is a bet-sizing approach relying on relatively fixed values to its parameters, i.e. if your win percentage and your winner/loser ratio are X and Y historically, that implies bet size Z. I have to say that it strikes...
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