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Look, either you have proof or you don't. If you don't, you should admit that you don't.

Do you have any case histories to back this up? It's my understanding that each client gets recoveries in proportion to the total amount of recovery available. If only 50% recovery possible, each customer gets 50% of what they had. So, basically, I don't think that your statement about the...

Yes, I think that academics who actually find something end up, more often than not, keeping the info to themselves and trading based on it, so that the public information is essentially what they've decided won't work. That is the paradox. When I took Finance in b-school, the professors taught...

There is a bit of a paradox at the heart of academic research into market movements, though. Academics, at least in the papers I've seen, tend to test the most rudimentary models and draw conclusions from them about the market. But, there are a billion different ways to trade and successful...

I do have a way to do this that works for me. It requires the convergence of 6 different factors, all objectively measurable, which I think is a reasonably small number, so I don't think I've just been curve-fitting, in the bad sense, all this time. As of now, I've got data on about 700...

My guess would be that you would find that for any "x", the number of times this happens is greater than 0, but that for some values of "x" the frequency of this occurrence is low enough that entering at "x+1" provides a viable trading opportunity. That's just a guess, though, since I don't...

I think you can find situations where you have "the wind at your back" in a certain direction. I just don't find that visual patterns have helped me with finding them. I prefer abstract patterns based on math. That said, I would be surprised if you couldn't build a model that took a visual...

Which, if true, I think is very risky. The best info on ET is about objective topics like statistical analysis, backtesting methods, performance metrics, etc. The stuff about more subjective things like visual patterns or concepts like "overbought" or "oversold" are ripe for "confirmation bias"...

Well, as far as I know, all "law enforcement" and "regulatory enforcement" is considered to work on a "best efforts" basis, i.e. there are no "service level agreements" between the general public and the police or regulators. The cops don't show up at your house before you've been burglarized...

He totally posted that comment in advance. He can't help it if his post got lost in cyberspace. :) BTW, if anyone has the idea to jump on me for not pushing a prediction out there, I only predict things when the stars align exactly in my set-up. If someone posts a chart that isn't based on my...

Believe me, I know the feeling. Life before civilization may have been "nasty, brutish and short" but at least you always knew where you stood and if somebody screwed you over and you killed them, nobody held it against you. To the contrary, they knew not to f*ck with you in the future.

Yes.

Yes, it will send the message that anarchy and mob rule are the order of the day. It's hard to put that genie back in the bottle.

Man, I am not saying they can't with any kind of definitiveness. I'm saying they might not be able to. A lot of important things can't be done over the phone because there needs to be a paper trail. I just don't see the necessity of a rush to judgment. Do you think we should just go down...

Dude, you are making valid points but you are assuming too much (unless you know things for sure). In this case, you are assuming that U.S. Bank will give out that information over the phone. The NFA might only be empowered to obtain that information via mail. If I call U.S. Bank and say "I'm...

Anyone know why RCG has the lowest amount of excess capital relative to adjusted net capital among the CME-regulated firms? What's the strategy behind this?

It's not naivete, it's a little thing called "getting all the evidence" before making a judgment. Is Peter Brandt naive for saying "there's a lot we don't know"? http://www.bloomberg.com/video/cftc-can-t-handle-peregrine-mess-brandt-says-~zj6Fa~vQTiWdVcz_JQpJg.html

You make a good point about internal controls and the likelihood that at least the PFG CFO was aware, but would US Bank really know what PFG was filing with the CFTC as its balances? Was the NFA staffed sufficiently to check up on every custodial bank address submitted to it? Maybe US Bank did...

I think that my favorite feature of my trading models (which are for intraday trading, but can lead to overnight holds) is that they rarely give counter-trend signals once a strong multi-week trend emerges. When Crude was declining in mid-April and throughout May, I got 15 consecutive short...

The net 2 points don't have to all be 2-point wins. I've had wins ranging from a single tick to over 30 points in the past year. You "pick up" whatever the market decides to drop in front of you. Some day's it's a penny and other days its a crisp new hundo. Other times, it'll snag a dollar out...