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You are probably right about the put spread. It is not a trade based on a technical setup but more predicated on the belief that we should see some pullback after such a huge runup and no fundamental support. Also, I have a hard time believing the gov will let oil run up so high at this...

And down she goes....that didn't take long.

I have a long put spread on USO (40/34) that I held onto even when I closed my CL. I am tempted like all hell to short CL again as I can't imagine it doesn't pull back to 70, but Im going to hold off. Every minor retreat has been treated as a buying opportunity recently and my guess is the...

Out of my short CL position at 78.58. Short at will she should roll over at any minute.

I need a one-two punch of some seriously missed earnings and some dire economic reports to create a huge round of profit taking. not only would this bail me out of this CL situation but I am also ready for a new opportunity to get long..... Most of my long positions I opened about 7 days...

I should have but i decided to hold until morning on hopes of some general market profit taking, dollar strengthening, etc. If the dollar is down and oil up at 9am tomorrow, I am closing at that moment. So, there is the trigger point...get your position ready. I'll confirm once closed. :-/

Au contraire, I will be surprised because the very act of my closing my short position indicates that the near term future direction of crude should be lower. So, I will be more surprised if it pops. It's much like that quantum physics peculiarity whereby the act of watching an experiment...

Yes, i fully realize that I will close out my CL position tonight or tomorrow and crude will probably drop $3 - $5 this week. It won't be the first time. However, it was not a good trade, doesn't follow my basic system. I would love to be the type of trader who builds positions slowly...

Yeah, i've changed my mind. I've got a short CL position I'm going to close out tonight or tomorrow morning. I have long January put spread on USO that I am going to leave in place. I still believe that people are being mislead on this oil runup -- meaning its a case where people think...

Yes, it is quite fortuitous for them. I am having a hard time believe and/or accepting that crude can maintain these prices given the current industrial slump and slow consumer spending. I know its going up eventually, but it seems premature. I'm thinking about going down with the ship...

Sorry, to be clear, when I said "kill" me, Ive taken about an 8% portfolio loss. For me, in such a short period of time, that kills me. However, it's not so bad that I won't live to fight another day. Still, probably a bit too much leverage with the CL. However, it is bad luck that I've...

I have two actual trading systems, one automated and one based on signals, both of those are well understood and are doing well. Unfortunately, they are simply funding my discretionary trading losses. I should probably just stop trading discretionary. The thing is I believe if I can master...

I'm an idiot. I will pretty much just leave it at that. This 20% move in oil has more or less killed me.

It's clearly, without a doubt, type 3.

cash index futures options expire thursday or i believe at the open print on friday morning... or the stop trading thursday and the final price is based on the friday open print. either way they dont trade on the last friday.

well it looks like we topped out tonight folks

Why would commodities continue to rise if the market is to fall? Quite a few of the commodities are either at the top of their channel or seem to have just broken out. They may go up, but it would be odd for there to be a divergence with the overall market.

One of the things I haven't been doing and never really saw the value in was documenting each trade rigorously. No longer. Beginning immediately I will document each trade either before or immediately afterward. While this won't prevent me from "hanging on to a loser", it will prevent a...

Redneck- That was a great post -- that was literally me on the day i first posted "Crushed". Ive been doing this long enough to know where the landmines are, but every once in a while (lets say once every 3 months), it's like i get "battle-drunk" and end up firing wildly. This last...

Yeah me2 i was wondering the same thing. Trending would have seemed to work better over the last 6 months. My mean reversion system actually works against strong intraday trends in a normal environment....but if you look at todays chart there was no reversion to the intraday trend. What...