Search results

Think about why... This is the also the first time in history that all the world's currencies were made out of paper and the reserve currency was losing its position. You can't just melt down the "bad" money and reforge it into "good" money when its paper or just digits on a computer...

Odd that they'd announce it on a Sunday to me, but maybe its Monday there already. Makes you wonder where the carry trade money is invested at the moment. It must still be in there because world markets at all at highs. At some point the fearless margin money and carry trade money will...

Not a chance. By then, Canada will be happy that China wants its oil and will have money that will buy something to pay for it with.

Too much slippage on FXE. You get killed getting in, and killed getting out. Net effect is breakeven if you bet correctly.

Said it takes effect in 2 wks. I wonder if THAT will convince people not to bet their tuition and rent money in the stock market?

As long as it declines slowly its more trouble than its worth trying to avoid it. I usualy go to GLD over long weekends because that's when the dollar usually gets slammed the worst.

I think I'd rather hold gold than dollars longer term.

Only works for very small positions for very short timeframes. The problem with owning silver as an investment is that storage costs are very high, and if industrial demand goes in the tank, so will the price. Right now, demand exceeds supply, and that's what's been pushing it higher...

The debt bubble needs to burst to put us into a depression. I think its years off, like after the election at least, or more likely when the dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency, after boomers try to retire and collect, like in the 2010 to 2012 timeframe.

Was that what happened in 1979 or 1980 when the rates all of a sudden went thru the roof?

I like your diversified setup. I think thats wise. How is the TIP rate determined? I thought they use the reported CPI. That's why i've avoided them. Also, if rates rise, bonds decline. Maybe that's not true for TIPS, though. In 1980, bonds got creamed when rates went to the moon to...

It will take a big crisis to get a rate cut

We are obviously into stagflation. Not as bad as it was in the 70's, but in that direction. High tech defense did well, but that was because Reagan got elected and pumped up government spending on defense. I don't think there will be the option of increasing defense spending this time...

Paper money = debt Digital paper money = debt Its that simple. The more of it you lend, the more diluted it becomes.

Try shadowstatistics.com They have the inflation and unemployment numbers calculated the same way as they used to be in the 70's. The government needed to change the method to prevent COLA from stoking the inflation fires and worsening the debt/deficits.

LOL, because NAHB were always the PERMABULLS on housing, silly! That's what's SICK about it. Don't worry, what they lose on each house they will try to make up in volume. You watch.

the NAHB mailing has usually been looking thru rose colored glasses on the positive side. I guess the positive you can find there is that every single item is negative, so at worst case it just flatlines.

I think it depends if the rest of the economy goes down with it. If that is "allowed" to happen, you have bad situation similar to the US in the 1930's or Japan the past 15 years. Now, the question is, with all the debt and deficits out there, what are the odds they can prevent it from...

From National Assn of Homebuilders today: April 25, 2007 By David F. Seiders NAHB Chief Economist Home Buyer Demand Shifts Downward — Again A variety of indicators strongly suggested that the demand for single-family homes had stabilized late last year following a substantial...

Prices won't need to fall in dollar terms if the value of the dollar declines faster than the value of the homes. But that's cheating. The correct answer would more likely be when rates go way up like in 1980. I wonder if that will happen again? Another possibility would be if we go into...