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I have a simple idea about so called edge deterioration, I will try to explain it in this post. It's understood that trading edges deteriorate over longer run. This is said to happen due to the fact that too much trading capital is thrown to exploit the edge (i.e. too many people start to...

Different pairs have different trendiness and volatility characteristics, so no wonder you get such results. Could it be you strategy is trend-following only? or counter-trend only? In this case profitability relies on a few outliers. It's a normal thing in trading, but question is: does you...

A squigly line itself doesn't tell me anything. But the value of indicator might tell me something. Anyway, the only indicator based rule I've added to my rules database is ADX(14)>40 (and its opposite). What it tells me is the strength of directional movement (above highs and below lows). This...

Hi nitro, What is the basis of your argument? Could you give an example? From what I understand, is that those squigly lines (I bet you're refering to indicators) can be transformed into discrete boolean value by using a simple concept of threshold. Now the threshold, I believe, should not...

Yes, I read about it on this forum, it was hyped as supposedly "the best book about TA". The problem is, I live in Eastern Europe and buying such books is a risky and expensive thing. It can take up to two months just for it to be delivered, and then I'm not guaranteed that I'll find anything...

Hi, I'm a software developer, I create my own software for analysis. Have never bought any software related to trading. (1) What you're saying is basically "add these specific rules". As I already wrote, I have a set of about 200 rules ready. It is no problem for me to add any rule I can...

I aggree that out-of-sample and cross-validation tests are not enough. That's why I created this thread - to discuss this problem. What I think is that these objective methods would really help to weed out garbage results to great extent. I understand that subjective analysis is a must. A...

Thank you for your advice. I investigated these two methods you suggested. As far as I understood k-fold cross-validation method makes opposite assumption regarding training and validation sample size ratios. In K-fold training to validation sample size ratio is (K-1)/K, which means the...

Hi Hook N. Sinker, I forgot to post the 4th requirement for mined patterns. 4) complexity - this is pattern complexity in amount of atomic rules that constructs the pattern. I will give an example of how I look at patterns: I use binary atomic (cannot be decomposed into smaller sub-rules)...

Let's suppose price patterns are mined from price data (data sample). So we come up with a set of patterns that conforms to our preset requirements. These requirements could be: 1) support - how many times the pattern showed up in our data sample: s(A)=50 would mean that pattern A showed...

Not true. Nowadays kids are actually dumber, more spoiled, less disciplined and every new generation seems to be getting easier and easier school programs.

What's the use of being #1 among losing funds? If you say that you are #1 short bias fund and it still lost, then it means all other short bias funds are even bigger losers and even more useless. And I am considering 1,5% yearly gain a loss. Why? Simply because risk-free investments earn...

There's a difference between usual and trading industry. It takes hundreds and thousands of staff, enormous management efforts and time to make a usual company worth billions of dollars. But in trading there could be as few as one person trading for himself, and still making millions.

You can use a simple Excel sheet for this. For example, paste closing prices of one market to column A, the second to column B, and in column C write formula "=A1/B1" (for the first row), then just double click the corner of the cell containing the formula and it gets applied to all rows. You...

This is like complaining about having too much money. You look for problems where there ain't none. A lot of people would break their necks if they could work from home and make a living, having no boss, no rules tossed at you by someone you hate, no need to deal with annoying coworkers, no...

I'm sorry for confusion and misunderstanding. After reading this forum for awhile I accidently found acrary's posts. I read almost all of them. The guy is a genius. Now I understand the difference between market character and real edge, and how to test ant track it. This is really what was...

Laughed my ass off! :D :D :eek: :D

Get off of acid, man :D

I'm not talking about a single person but about the whole population. You never know when or where a new invention, fad or fashion will spark and cause social and business trends. Now you look back and see: yes, there was dot com boom. Yes it ended. But back then, who could predict that such...

Godwin's law Usenet. There is a tradition in many groups that, once this occurs, that thread is over, and whoever mentioned the Nazis has automatically lost whatever argument was in progress. Godwin's Law thus practically guarantees the existence of an upper bound on thread length in those...