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Why such inconsistency? Setting stop to .05 but trailing with a .10?

Indicators are not a big issue for me at all. Out of 183 binary technical rules I use as inputs for pattern mining only 8 are based on indicators, 2 on ADX and 6 on simple moving averages. What I'm looking for are patterns consisting of 1-3 rules. I'm not interested in indicators as stand-alone...

Neural networks can help in model development, and it has been done. So "never" is false. I guess those who say NNs don't work either don't know how to use them, or tried to use them with wrong data and/or incorrectly. NN is just a tool and before you can use it you have to understand the...

How is Hitler and WW2 related to oil futures? :confused:

Abolish stupidity NOW! :D

First, you need to define what is anti-martingale. Martingale is known as doubling (tripling, quadrupling, etc.) risk to recoup losses and win some trivial gain. While anti-martingale is not understood as lowering risk twice, thrice, etc. after a loss. It usually means keeping risk constant -...

The parameters (50% win rate and 1:1 reward:risk) don't matter much, because you can change them any way, and you will reach the same conclusion: martingale doesn't change math expectation. I might as well used x and y for proving my point instead of randomly choosing 50% and 1.0 On the...

Here's a third way of looking at it - through mathematical expectation, which is (win% * avg. win) - (loss% * avg. loss). Assume 50% win ratio and 1:1 reward:risk. If your strategy is to stop after 3 losses in a row, then your loss % is: 0.5^3 = 12,5% Your average loss is: 1+2+4=7 Win...

It doesn't matter where you take your loss. You're just exponentially decreasing your reward:risk ratio with every next trade after loss, while keeping win rate the same (strategy remains the same). Here's example: Assume you have 50% win ratio and 1:1 reward to risk ratio (i.e. risk one...

You are fooling yourself. I'll try to explain why. You have a final stop somewhere anyway. Let's assume it's 10th step (yes, it is very possible that you will have 10 losses in a row sometime in the future). So your total risk will be 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32 + 64 + 128 + 256 + 512 = 1023 risk...

Is there any way to get this article?

When one states that TA works or doesn't work makes a mistake. TA is not something that "works", it's just a tool: price patterns or moving averages, stochastic indicators and other derivatives from price data. While application of TA may work or not. Then again, when one says it works or...

He asked "how to select strategy according to market condition". Quite ambiguous question. He may be asking how to develop a strategy for some market condition, or he may be asking how to select a single strategy (from some strategy pool) for current market conditions. I assumed the latter.

Have three different strategies each for each market condition and redistribute risk weights as the market changes. Your typical strategy should perform well on its market condition, and break-even on other times. No need to select a single strategy.

No, currently I do not trade volatility breakout, but it's in my to-do list. What Crabel's writing means to me is proof that you can trade intraday breakouts filtered by short-term price patterns. I'm certain that his patterns don't work nowadays because they're outdated -> markets change. My...

Hi, You answered your own question. I traded ORB (but not on eminis), and lost money before learning the fact that the same thing does not and should not work every day. There is a book dedicated particularly to this type of trading. "Day trading with short term price patterns and opening...

You emphasize "explainability" of a market inefficiency. Then I have this question: can this "explainability" be based on something technical like "this market behavior/pattern consistently repeated itself for past 5 (or so) years, thus it is possibly non-random behavior which can be exploited...

There is one thing I don't understand when people say "find an edge". I can think of two possible "edge" types. One is fundamental and other is technical. I imagine fundamental edge as something based on fundamental, relatively subjective data, like investigating company's results before buying...

The discussion is not about whether edges exist or not. That is off-topic, discussed many times in other threads and should belong to the class of "does TA work?" type of questions... I define edge as something better than random, objective and quantifiable. If you don't believe in such...

Basically to stay consistent in profits, you should have a few edges at once and the money management scheme should apply risk weights among your active edges. Like immune system, you could periodically readjust weights, so less is risked on deteriorating edges, and more on healthy ones. The two...