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  1. S

    Anybody else short US 30 Bond

    Don't think that's true. 10s30s has been flattening. Asia never really bought long end. And the color I hear from london and jpy desks is that asia has been overnight buyers for the last few days if nothing else.
  2. S

    Inflation? What inflation? Let's look at facts.

    So what? We can all find list of prices that have gone up and list of prices that have gone down. That's not the point isn't it? When economists talk about inflation, it's about general price levels. I've read the body of literature on CPI. While like any other measure of economic reality, it...
  3. S

    Gold

    I find this very dubious - you can walk up to a counter at the local HSBC in london or Banco di Siena in Milan and buy/sell gold?
  4. S

    Inflation? What inflation? Let's look at facts.

    And what exactly are you proposing? I'm going to guess it's a protectionist and contractionary.
  5. S

    Inflation? What inflation? Let's look at facts.

    Have you read about the deflationary panics of the 19th century? They were absolutely crippling.
  6. S

    anyone trading 2-5-10 yr or 5-10-30 yr US treasury butterflys

    Oh I stand corrected then. For whatever reason I thought we are talking about cash bonds. In any case, I think the request for inquiry based trading systems are going to eventually go away. Already seeing a fair amt of interest in introducing limit book type of execution tools to the buy side.
  7. S

    Inflation? What inflation? Let's look at facts.

    So.... we are going to counter well documented and researched statistics with .... your personal observations? Let's see - did the price of personal computers rise or fall between 03-07; Were you able to buy detergent and paper towels at a higher or lower price at Costco in 2007 compared to at...
  8. S

    anyone trading 2-5-10 yr or 5-10-30 yr US treasury butterflys

    What are you talking about? There are both order book type of markets for bonds that you hit or lift (GovX for example); or you can send out a RFQ to a set of dealers for competition on either Tradeweb or Bloomberg; There may be a slight blackout period in the few minutes after a major report -...
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    anyone trading 2-5-10 yr or 5-10-30 yr US treasury butterflys

    Will need a good spreader and access to the interdealer market. Tradeweb can do flies but you'll probably end up paying a fair amt of bid/offer if you want speed.
  10. S

    Anybody else short US 30 Bond

    First, I don't disagree with most of what you are saying. Think we are in an oversold mode but the market is still net long. Now, as to this taking-losses business - the Fed doesn't have to. They technically don't have to deflate their balance sheet by selling the assets they bought. They can...
  11. S

    London Cabbies..

    You go work 3-5 years on the THE KNOWLEDGE and maybe you can earn the same.
  12. S

    how can you take advantage of chinese interest rates?

    Nope. With some minor recent exception, there's strict capital control for the yuan. You can't freely convert between the dollar and the yuan.
  13. S

    LLC Brokerage Account

    Why would it? Your tax bill isn't reduced when you buy a sandwich. Generally, tax is on income; the acquisition of assets (be it a cashflow generating asset or a consumable asset) has no impact on taxable income.
  14. S

    'I Have A Dream'- to all futures traders

    Wait... if a CTA/programmer/quant runs the operations, doesn't that just mean the 'co-op' is a fund where all the clients are also shareholders? Isn't that just another iteration of a hedge fund? I'm still not clear what benefit this brings to the client/shareholders since alpha generation is...
  15. S

    'I Have A Dream'- to all futures traders

    I don't understand your premise. Aren't you basically just suggesting creating a mutual fund? Also - why are you convinced that size is necessarily a good thing? Size is what makes it difficult to trade on a dime. I'm not so sure you understand how the market works if you think size for sake...
  16. S

    Anybody else short US 30 Bond

    Unless the 30y auction tomorrow goes well... in which case 10s30s will flatten in a hurry (god knows i have nothing to call in terms of outright direction of rate)
  17. S

    Poll: Someone explain me why this would not have worked better than the stimulus.

    Fair enough (although I'm not making the assumption that we are starting from a strong economy). In that case, why not just cut everyone a check and skip the inefficiency created by creating these 'jobs' that are easily gamed? There's a legitimate argument to be made why cutting everyone a...
  18. S

    Poll: Someone explain me why this would not have worked better than the stimulus.

    Sigh... as soon as the "stimulus" runs out, all the jobs that were created by being paid for directly by the stimulus money will immediately go away (I suppose not all - but certainly the vast majority). Think of it this way, if someone said I'll give you a guy to work for you for free, would...
  19. S

    Poll: Someone explain me why this would not have worked better than the stimulus.

    I sympathize with your view and have no love for government employees either. But here's my problem with your plan: as soon as the money runs out, employment plummets and there'd be massive wage inflation due to this. Further, the idea of hiring more government worker to monitor private...
  20. S

    Backlash against Fed’s $600bn easing

    Seriously... exporters who peg their currency at artificially weak levels to the dollar are now complaining about this?
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