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  1. tommcginnis

    Hedging against random flash crashes

    Nope! You're totally in the clear. A financial option *gives*you* the option -- the right -- to exercise or not. For the seller, it is an obligation.
  2. tommcginnis

    Pattern Recognition -- Any Good?

    Very interesting! I've heard of this guy (Bukowski) but tend to shy away from "T/A" books because they have uniformly been full of crap. Bukowski's looks perhaps better than that. Regardless, a long wick is a rather strong indication that the price level was unsustainable into the near future...
  3. tommcginnis

    Hedging against random flash crashes

    I don't think everyone is clear on the concept: a 'flash crash' is not just a sharp drop, but a likewise sharp recovery. A put purchased 5% OTM would jack up in price as the market approached, and then deflate almost as quickly as the market recovered, but this time have eaten a boatload of...
  4. tommcginnis

    Pattern Recognition -- Any Good?

    tommcginnis' Guide To Profitable Pattern Recognition _______________________Stay away from long wicks.___________________ _____________________________the end.___________________________ :wtf: :cool:
  5. tommcginnis

    What size do prop traders and investment banks trade?

    What market? What time of day? You're right with your intuition that they would want to know how much of an order size would move the market, and may not *wish* to move the market without recognizing (the) cost in doing so, but then too, sometimes you might have to pay some vig in a "flush"...
  6. tommcginnis

    Sell options execution

    Not really. Think of the market as a dark room, where as bid and ask and trades are called out, the participants light up momentarily: • in a loud, crowded market, the marketplace would resemble the old floor of the CBOE -- brightly lit, elbow-to-elbow, gnashing and slashing and markets being...
  7. tommcginnis

    Roll up the short call in this spread, let it ride, or roll up the entire spread?

    GTFO. Why? Well, how much more are you expecting to make on this trade? What's the probability of substantial movement down in V? "Nah!" :confused: Take your happy early earnings, and GTFO. Why not a stop loss? Well, cuz it's a spread, and it's going to move with (perhaps) more speed than a...
  8. tommcginnis

    Indicator for Comparing Which of Two Correlated Instruments is Leading/Lagging?

    Leading and lagging, versus co-related, are two very different things. https://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations Posit a theoretical connection, first, and then seek to disprove it. It won't *guarantee* that you're posited connection is sound, but it'll sure cut down on noise. FWIW, there...
  9. tommcginnis

    Long short game

    Too much fun. (Wayyyyyy too much.) Went five minutes, placed 19 trades -- I *think* 14 long and 5 short, and skipped 4. Ended with $21,708.82 Reminds me 10,000% of this... http://www.atthruhike.com/
  10. tommcginnis

    Inside Armslist, a peer-to-peer market for gun sales

    I would just like to note for the record, that these ET posts have covered the entire 'gun debate' in a mere two pages, and in a fairly respectful tone. A big Thumb's Up to all. :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:
  11. tommcginnis

    Inside Armslist, a peer-to-peer market for gun sales

    Hardly. • Vehicles being used to kill people is much more standard practice around the world than in the USA -- but it's usually in multiples like 10x-100x, whereas the USA mode is in singles -- hence the seeming surfeit of murder-by-motor-vehicle. • Weapons are used for what weapons do -- kill...
  12. tommcginnis

    Inside Armslist, a peer-to-peer market for gun sales

    Malarkey. (To be polite.) Armslist is only "controversial" to those who deem firearms and the Natural Law rights to unmolested Life, Liberty, and Property to be controversial. Blaming Armslist (or firearms sales in general) for the fact that firearms may be used in criminal acts is like...
  13. tommcginnis

    want to code a custom tws mosaic option scanner how ?

    Forgive my laziness, but if there is an API for Mosaic, it's news to me.
  14. tommcginnis

    Can a retail trader succeed in algorithmic trading? (Kevin Davey vs Ernest Chan)

    Markets change, boys & girls! Let's get over it. Let's get over any fantasy that markets will/should behave consistently in the present or into the future as they might have done in the past. Ain't gonna happen. Harvest what you can, when you can, and then get the hell out. T/A tells you what...
  15. tommcginnis

    Trader Expert Software?

    This is what happens when technique grabs a solution and goes looking for a problem. To have an expert system work, you must have stable conditions → stable data. In finance, you will have a different outcome: https://xkcd.com/1570/
  16. tommcginnis

    Favorite momentum indicator? CCI vs Momentum opinions.

    Your observation depends on the current settings -- there is no such thing as a T/A indicator with fixed settings. NEVER accept "default" settings -- ALWAYS tune and investigate and re-tune until you have a robust indicator. OP: your own opinion on CCI et. al. -- especially your own intuitive...
  17. tommcginnis

    Candlestick probability

    You're welcome to contend and demonstrate anything you wish, but what you have right now is a 40-60 probability range, and having that imbue positive expectancy. "Nope." That's what was responded to.
  18. tommcginnis

    ESMA study finds circuit breakers significantly widen bid-ask spreads

    I know it's early to say, but this could be the "No Duh!" study of the year.
  19. tommcginnis

    There is any tool to find stocks with largest and lowest bid ask spreads ?

    TWS's spread column was a great boon to me as a newb tick-scalper, you could sort on it, but I don't think it had a scan ability. Now, I just off-load a snapshot of data, and work in other details (trades/minute, volume/minute, etc) and juice things to where they need to be. zdreg notes that...
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