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  1. tommcginnis

    Fed rates - march

    I don't think we are. I would've thought that it would be a major big deal by now, with everyone discussing the impact/non-impact on this and that. Myself, I think a raise in rates is a definite -- but I find I am very much in the minority. (And then, it cracks me up when the market does its...
  2. tommcginnis

    Lack of volatility in ES getting brutal

    Ohferchrisakes.
  3. tommcginnis

    Granularity of the Bid/Ask spread relative to STD/ATR

    No one challenges your bibliographic skills.
  4. tommcginnis

    Lack of volatility in ES getting brutal

    Oh hell, man! Every time I've tried to scalp in the last ....5+ years? I've lost money. What's to show? "Red ink." Before that? I was a bread-n-butter ES scalper for years. Psychologists call this "projection" -- where (it's been a while, but I'm paraphrasing from wayyyy back) we see the world...
  5. tommcginnis

    Granularity of the Bid/Ask spread relative to STD/ATR

    Maybe. And maybe not. Sure, it makes us all feel warm and fuzzy with regard to the Efficient Market Hypothesis that lets us make sense of the world. But in practice? In harsh, repeatable, ugly reality? Go inspect the SPX options bid-ask spreads. Check out the weekly(s); check out the...
  6. tommcginnis

    Lack of volatility in ES getting brutal

    GTFO. Re-capitalize. You are not in a place (mentally or financially) to accept the risk exposure necessary to garner the reward you seek. Your ability to push mouse buttons is not a license to trade. You must bring a set of skills to the market that, like the profile of a key in a lock, pushes...
  7. tommcginnis

    GDP vs PPP

    Two valleys are situated on either side of a mountain ridge. In one valley, the farmers are highly mechanized, and have been for years, and have harvested a rich crop for years. In the other valley, the farmers are just learning about rotation, efficient fertilizer deployment, no-till plantings...
  8. tommcginnis

    Some advice & ideas sought....

    You are setting yourself up for a *ferocious* Bad Day. "Repent! Repent, Sinner! While there's yet time!" And all that and more......
  9. tommcginnis

    Granularity of the Bid/Ask spread relative to STD/ATR

    A little food for thought: (Fresh-cooked from a noon-time scrape.)
  10. tommcginnis

    Scalping

    That's your response? The thread was started by someone who correctly observed that the definition, as had been used for decades, has been borrowed, morphed, and lost its original intent. (Reminds me of "peruse" actually -- which seems oh-so appropo.) My first reflection to you was that in...
  11. tommcginnis

    Scalping

    You first wrote with an interest of reducing confusion, but then cite investopedia -- whose business model is based on selling pablum to those (earnestly?) seeking first-level knowledge. They will publish crap like this and will not take it down, despite a relative *campaign* of folks trying to...
  12. tommcginnis

    Trading Theta?

    Chapter One: Sometimes, if you get in a fix, and get worried, you have to buy yourself some time. But mostly, you just want to sell it. The end.
  13. tommcginnis

    Scalping

    Ohfergawdsakes -- don't ever quote investopedia. It just shoots any credibility you're hoping for, all to hell.
  14. tommcginnis

    Scalping

    While I agree with your definition, a couple of points: -- the magic phrase now seems to be "tick-" scalping. I don't care for it, exactly, but it's safer in conversation. On the other hand, and to your point, those day-traders just can put themselves up to writing "I am a week-scalper." Meh...
  15. tommcginnis

    Name anything wrong with this trade

    In light of observable history of half-a-dozen events in the last few years... Two questions: #1) what would make the VIX jack from 11 to 25? #2) is the answer to #1 predictable. Are we done yet? No?? #3) what happens to my account, *when* the events cited in #1 come to "actuation"?? (answer...
  16. tommcginnis

    es future options

    BTW, and not to add confusion to your mix but, while you are aware that the clock is ticking on your short future contract, THERE ARE SUBSEQUENT futures available. Thus, into your mix, you can roll this Mar17, (lengthening the time to a solution OR to further losses) OR you can buy a Jun17...
  17. tommcginnis

    How to start a Hedge fund?

    I really hate to write this, but I'm going to disagree. Without going into sordid details, the actual *operation* of a fund is available to anyone with a desktop. "Operations" can be done by one person; "Trading" can be done by 2-3-4 others; "Research" can also be done by 2-3-4 more. And all of...
  18. tommcginnis

    es future options

    Irrelevant. Every lottery has a winner. The *relevant* question is: is my risk commensurate with my sought reward. That is *it*. If you can reframe your market question in terms of risk and reward, you'll be getting somewhere. If you leave it as "doesn't every up market have some downsides"...
  19. tommcginnis

    IB changing the Quote subscription

    Totally with ya. I wish there were greater depth/detail on *OPRA* I'd pay for that! But whole days go by that I don't hit a non-options page. The execution of it will be key. Like, how much money do we wish to spend to keep annoying BRIGHT YELLOW DATA FIELDS off of the screens we have to stare...
  20. tommcginnis

    How to start a Hedge fund?

    You're the one smiling, brainiac. None-the-less,
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