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  1. mervyn

    A 10% drop in the S&p would literally bring it back to April 2024 lows!!!!!

    using your numbers, excess spread (spy-rsp)/rsp, you will see it started from openai trades. 3-5-10 excess spread is about 4%, ytd-1y excess spread is 11%.
  2. mervyn

    American debt

    U.S. Debt on Pace to Top $56 Trillion Over Next 10 Years https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/18/us/politics/us-debt-economy.html The Congressional Budget Office said on Tuesday that the U.S. national debt is poised to top $56 trillion by 2034, as rising spending and interest expenses outpace tax...
  3. mervyn

    The EV transition is real

    you understood those eco people don't have any money, right? only do their masters' bidding.
  4. mervyn

    The EV transition is real

    decades ago when i was traveling in south east asia, every summer you can see and smell the hazes and smokes of control burns from indonesia islands. back then was the palm oil business gone crazy to satisfy the demand. i think they still have that problem these days but i haven't been out for a...
  5. mervyn

    Tesla-the future

    one more gone https://www.engadget.com/fisker-is-the-latest-ev-startup-to-declare-bankruptcy-123056157.html
  6. mervyn

    Fitel corporation inc is a classic China scam.

    the problem is that who cares, you are from alaska. there are kweb group of large chinese cap companies you can buy, why penny stocks.
  7. mervyn

    The EV transition is real

    hit piece funded by oil and gas interests
  8. mervyn

    Why is TLT and IWM Diverging?

    flight to safety from the europeans last week hence boost the tle, iwm is small cap and their funding costs are soring hence the lack of participation.
  9. mervyn

    China's dedollarization

    speaking about north korea, never want to go there but it seems its cities are well developed. i thought everyone is eating dirts there, not so... much prettier than boston's i-95
  10. mervyn

    A 10% drop in the S&p would literally bring it back to April 2024 lows!!!!!

    very wrong in terms of approaching this view. a fast 10% folks may bail out and managers will exit, some may try to get back in, that is fine. the bigger issue here is the spy-rsp spread, a strong divergence began in may 2023, now 6 names counted for 40% of the gain this year. when people...
  11. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    “i have 5 houses, and a condo.”
  12. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    for the rates, 10y needs to be at 4.5 and above, now it is in a holding pattern. got be be patient.
  13. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    extremely bad market breath
  14. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    very scary market
  15. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    if you move std to 3, problem solved.
  16. mervyn

    GME Shenanigans Massive June call position

    likely but those two guys are not tech guys, they knew nothing, it is a money game.
  17. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    sep contract?
  18. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    not sure up or down next week.
  19. mervyn

    How did Roaring Kitty get the USD 174.5 million?

    did he pay tax?
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