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The problem is that cash doesnt have to earn 0% in the bank. It can earn 5% in IG corporates or 10% in HY bonds, the fact that people bought corporate bonds as much as they bought equities shows to me that its not a chase for income with idle cash balances(if it was they would have stayed in...

Michael Moore said he kept all his money in a savings account. He probably beat the market ever since he got rich

This is true. In order to 'beat the market' in the last 10 years all one had to do was to stay out of the market and buy stuff like gov bonds or corporates. It really didnt take a genius to beat the market. My hat goes off to people who beat the market by a significant amount but by staying...

Wow, Fed funds trading at 0.11% http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/fedfundsdata.cfm

Plosser sounded hawkish, Fisher too. I hope this leads to the May 2010 FF contract to tumble(Maybe the employment will help, hoping for a sub 100k print)Right now the front end is down. I'm hoping for a repeat of the Feb 2010 contract tumbling back in Jun but this time in the May 2010. Talk...

"The Fed will need courage because I believe we will need to act well before unemployment rates and other measures of resource utilization have returned to acceptable levels" - Charles I. Plosser FOMC voter Noticed he says acceptable levels, not 'before peaking'. Any voter who wants to raise...

http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=ZBZ9&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix= 30y UST breaking out here, and Bill Gross says he's a bull as he says people will fear deflation Where are the bloomberg headlines "30Y UST rallies as traders bet economy to stay...

August Clarium letter to investors http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/09/hedge-fund-clarium-capitals-august.html They rant about productivity and investment and why they think the world is in trouble. I guess they are in the 'US 2% GDP growth for the next 10 years' camp

Good banks will have to pay for bad banks, XLF to $100

http://www.google.com.br/#hl=pt-BR&source=hp&q=Pessimism+Exacts+a+Price+on+the+Skeptics+&btnG=Pesquisa+Google&meta=&aq=f&oq=Pessimism+Exacts+a+Price+on+the+Skeptics+&fp=1&cad=b...

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/09/guest_contribut_3.html This paper here(Which will probably hit the desks of most FOMC members within hours if its not already there) reaches the conclusion that the 70's inflation was the result of the fed not raising rates due optimistic inflation...

"Of course, if the economy remains mired in weak economic conditions, and inflation and inflation expectation measures are firmly anchored, then policy could remain highly accommodative." - Kevin Warsh one day after WSJ op-ed He was suggesting(indirectly) it might not take 14 months after the...

Sometimes I think I take too much risk and risk too big of a drawdowns but Thiel is down something like 50% from his 08 peak

I'm not referring to actual currency collapse I'm referring to the central bank threatening to destroy the currency. Imagine if bernanke went to make a speech and said 'The Fed does not have an exit strategy, we are targeting 5% CPI inflation for the next ten years, we will increase our QE...

This guy is incorrect in saying the equity rally was fueled by the QE and bank reserves, why?Because if the dealers had been buying stocks they would have shown a decline in bank reserves for the amount of equities purchased, most of the QE turned into bank reserves with only some of it becoming...

Clarium going under? http://www.marketwatch.com/story/clariums-tough-2009-gets-tougher-in-september-2009-09-25?dist=bigcharts Looks like they shorted the market and had to face the rally "The hedge fund, run by PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel, lost 8% in the first 14 trading days of this...

If the central bank credibly threatens to destroy the currency, aggregate demand will rise as people will fear tomorrow's inflation and spend today

Spread Between Optimism And Reality At All Time Record Wides "the US population is more 'hopeful' at this moment than it has ever been" http://www.zerohedge.com/article/spread-between-optimism-and-reality-all-time-record-wides Could leverage be the key behind the extreme emotions the US...

Directly I dont think so, but indirectly the fed tried to get the stock market to rally many times. There was the Soc Gen stock market collapse of early 2008 when the Fed eased 125bps in like two weeks. And the Global rate cut back on Oct 2008

Roserberg just lunched a long report where he talks about the possibility of the US starting a full blown weak USD policy. I very much agree with that sentiment after having read 'Essays on the Great Depression' by Bernanke. My only disagreement is that I believe it will be a far more of a...