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Whitney on the crunch http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704471504574445470989162030.html Lots of anectodal evidence. I find simply better to look at the macro picture, and it aint pretty(Item 9 Loans and leases in bank credit) http://federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/...

Geithner QE began this week. $34B worth of UST bills purchases(through reting debt) U.S. Treasury, supplementary financing account 164,945 -34,987 week over week Morgan Stanley strategists said this is keeping upward pressure on T-bills. This in turn might be the reason the...

"The slowing in core prices is more of a concern, said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan. The core rate fell following three prior recessions in which unemployment rose above 7 percent. That “suggests that core inflation could well be below zero within two years,” Feroli said in an...

Olivier Blanchard from the IMF "Q:One of your predecessors as chief economist at the IMF, Michael Mussa, predicts a strong recovery, saying there is a rule of thumb that sharp recession are followed by sharp recoveries. But the IMF report doesn’t discuss that theory? Why? Blanchard: With...

Shadow stats says, US has been in stagflation since 1990 The computer and the internet(and the bandwidth boom) didnt increase real output according to him

Jef Lacker from the Fed just said that as the Fed liquidity facilities expire but the purchases keep it up, reserves will rise and this 'will keep downward pressure in yields of assets that are similar' like bills, or something to that effect. So the SFP and all the QE might drive down the EFF...

Look out below folks http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLDj5Fgz5uYw

If you were to listen to the average mises.org reader you would think no human progress has happened ever since Bretton Woods was signed

Its looking like the top again but ES didnt broke even the 40MA. The smart money is very fast to close out easy $ chances, VIX hit 28, up 10%(Lots of hedge funds must be pilling into options). By the time it reaches the 50MA it should be at 33, thats the dilemma, you can get in now and risk get...

XLF is down 3%, corporate bonds 1% and Junk almost 2%. Yet libor is at 0.28%, down a bit for the day(Which is a bullish movement). So even though I expect some libor rise a bit, we are not likely to see post Lehman libor action ever against in our lifetimes

Lets remember that during Jan and Mar where the world thought every bank was insolvent and C debt was yielding 25% YTM, libor blew up by only 25bps, which reversed as the manipulations(like the stress test) kicked in. So my eurodollar trade already has a buffer of protection against the case the...

My thinking is, by Dec 2010 the financial crisis is likely to be over. So the Libor-OIS(the expected 3m Fed Funds Rate, I rather use this as fed funds trades at a premium to govs too) spread will be around 11bps, which was the avg leading up to 2007 4-1 odds on the calls looks good, plus I'm...

What you mean by credit risk?Its exchanged traded and libor is full faith and credit of the US gov these days :D If it blows out they will manipulate again with more QE, bailouts, TARP, god knows what Btw, Lacker is out of the FOMC next year, probably headed straight to a mental hospital

And the brigade is going strong "Lacker Says Fed May Need to Tighten Before Unemployment Falls" http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aec72yFS.BiU “I don’t think that is a showstopper if the unemployment rate hasn’t starting falling yet,” Lacker said. “ We have...

'GE' then choose CME eurodollar options

VIX back at 27 and ES free falling, will watch the 40 and 50 ES MA to decide when to buy more XLF puts(which are down more than 50% since I bought but they might make a come back if this is going to be a bad October)

Funny how a rich guy living in Singapore wants to tell others how domestic prices in the US are behaving

The porn pattern worked as this selloff has been unusual. Maybe I should have shorted when I got stopped out but I got tons of bearish exposure through ZQ and euro$, front end is going Nasdaq to the frustration of the Fed bluffing hawk brigade

LOL. I guess Rogers CPI weighting basket is "60% Crude Oil 40% sugar" http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-rogers-i-dont-know-where-the-government-shops-but-i-see-6-7-inflation-2009-10

I stopped out. I might have to apologize to the bulls for ending the morning rally