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https://www.coindesk.com/watch-traders-not-miners-china-crackdown China widened its crypto ban dropping a bomob but BTC couldnt break lower. Instead it hit stops and now it is on bounce mode. To me, these are signs of bottoming action. If that cant break 30K, what can?

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/06/19/americas-high-yield-debt-is-on-ever-shakier-foundations

If someone thinks there is a 90% chance of an event happening and 10% of another but their margin of error on those probabilities is huge, then that person actually has a 50/50 type of situation on their hands (in a monte carlo simulation, I bet the result will come close to a 50-50). To me...

I guess the difference between our approaches is that I assume max uncertainty of anything crypto related (at least for major cryptos that already have network effects). So when you list bearish points, I think 'ok, that has a 50% chance of being right'. That leaves a 50% chance of being wrong...

To me, paying attention to bearish information now, its like paying attention to gloom and doom in US stocks back in Mar 2020. The time to sell was long gone and the other side of the trade was the interesting one. If shorting has negative expected value now, and I believe it has due the large...

DOGE after Musk SNL

MSRT avg is $26K so they are still up (For all their 100K BTC stash, not just for the 13K recently bought), but more importantly their debt maturies goes out several years so there is no margin call risk and the guy running the company is well deep in the BTC religion, so he is not going to sell...

To argue the other way, here is where I think this is wrong: The Fed move from inflation targets to average inflation was a good move, its one step closer to NGDP targeting which would save the US economy from a lot of pain, specially in the context of record debt to GDP. A large indebted...

Here is the Powell answer on average inflation " Q: Craig Torres at Bloomberg. If I were a businessman looking at the forecast today, I would ask how and when the Fed seeks to achieve an average of 2 percent inflation. In other words, does the FOMC have a lookback period, or does it plan to...

I cant help but to think that the US dollar is going through a technical bounce in the context of a long-term bear market Financial repression is here to stay (whether in the US, EU, Japan and many others) but the difference is that the Fed has promissed 2% average inflation, that is...

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/chapter-6-big-cycle-china-its-currency-ray-dalio/ "As a result of their longer history and their more intensive studying of it, the Chinese are much more interested in evolving well over much longer time frames than Americans, who are much more interested in...

Did you try to buy $1,000 and bought 1000 options instead?

He owned 11.2M shares in 2019 back when the stock was at $180. Now he owns 2M at $336. He slashed his stake by 82%. Perhaps he knows governments will come after his empire at some point and he wants out

I can always dump if if I dont like it but I want to be in it before Ackman starts pumping it with his presentations. I'm sure he will pump the hell out of it (now that he is in the deal making business). If it looks legit, I will hold, if not, I will sell into the possible rally in the shares...

I changed my mind on PSTH, I longed some. I think this is a resonable bet looking 2-3 years out https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/some-final-pre-deal-psth-umg-thoughts

Random thoughts about reserve currencies: Gold's share of central bank reserves is down substantially since Bretton Woods broke down. Meanwhile the USD and European currencies (now the EUR) picked most of that share. This enabled the EU and the US to borrow at low interest rates, finance...

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycle-united-states-dollar-part-2-ray-dalio/ Dalio's new book (not out yet) looks like is full of great information

Excellent video on PoS, PoW and BTC vs ETH

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/14/paul-tudor-jones-says-bet-heavily-on-every-inflation-trade-if-fed-keeps-ignoring-higher-prices.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1623673207 PTJ making lots of sense here

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3705845-elon-musk-says-tesla-will-accept-bitcoin-payment-once-clean-energy-usage-confirmed?mail_subject=tsla-elon-musk-says-tesla-will-accept-bitcoin-payment-once-clean-energy-usage-confirmed&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3&utm_medium=email&utm_source=...