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  1. B

    "People are fed up with zero interest rates"

    In other news: "People are fed up with weather"
  2. B

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Where are you getting 40-50% drawdowns from? The corrections in JGB futs were 7-8% in 98, 03 and 08. Add in TIBOR financing and you're closer to 22-26% DDs.
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    You're missing Dalio's point when you blow off his analogy with 'that's the past'. He brings an example of an asset class that did well 15 years going forward five years after the credit growth bubble popped (1990 in Japan). Much of the western world is right now is between one and three years...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Marfin's stock is down 98% or so from 2007 highs so yes, they're probably not doing too well.
  5. B

    French central bank president attacks UK: Britain should be downgraded

    ...opening the 2nd bottle of red wine for the day as he prepares a cheese platter while lamenting to his wife he only had a two hour lunch break.
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    French central bank president attacks UK: Britain should be downgraded

    What's your average person? An North African migrant, a union leader, a teacher turned politician or maybe a manager in a French government controlled corporation?
  7. B

    French central bank president attacks UK: Britain should be downgraded

    He conveniently left out the fact that the Brits can print their currency in abundance. A discretionary freedom the French (alongside the PIGS) do not possess.
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    Top 10 Hedge Funds lose $31.8 Billion, John Paulson’s Fund Leads the Losers

    These are the aggregate SEC reported US equity longs? What a worthless metric. The article is a pile of junk.
  9. B

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The Brits are doing the right thing by burning bridges with the EU and the EURO. The outcry in Germany and France is big as some lower-rank eggheads are demanding the UK now has to consider leaving the Euro zone -- as if trying to threaten the Brits. Is Switzerland doing so badly outside of...
  10. B

    InteractiveBrokers "hyper-hypothecates" $14.5b of Customer Funds?

    There is no guarantee your wire (instructed before bankruptcy) is not going to be clawed back in bankruptcy court.
  11. B

    Commerzbank - Auf Weidersehen

    Can't wait to see Schauble's face at the press conference announcing the nationalization in 2012.
  12. B

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I'd fully support the EURO (including the Brussels waterhead) if there was a fiscal union. But there isn't and there likely won't be for another 10-20+ years. That's why the EUR is a painful and costly misconception.
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    90% of the people don't understand how to short a currency so for the benefit of the proletariat we should just go ahead and blindly start a currency union? You can't be serious. Of course there should never have been a European currency union without a unified fiscal, tax, social and pension...
  14. B

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I think that's a smoke-screen for an argument. A saver in British Pounds can always short the Pound vs. the EUR (or USD) if he wishes to have protection against a devaluation of the Pound if that's such a scary thought. For the life of me I don't understand why Italy and Germany - with...
  15. B

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    You don't see the benefits of a free-floating currency? You can't be serious?
  16. B

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Dumped almost half of my long stock exposure into this ramp and added some hedges. Across all my accounts I'm probably net neutral equities now, slightly long Dollar and long bonds. If my timing is as 'good' as it's been over the last couple months then we should rally another 20% right here.
  17. B

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    It makes sense if you replace Switzerland with Swaziland :cool:
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    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/26/business/global/banks-fear-breakup-of-the-euro-zone

    Next Merkel & Sarkozy bullshit press conference coming to a TV screen near you soon.
  19. B

    Monti, Merkel, Sarkozy: bla, bla, bla, bla, bla, bla....

    The Germans know deep down in their heart they'd do better if they were to exit the EUR zone asap (aka bail-out zone) but they lack the balls to follow through.
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