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I am not short because I love being a contrarian, I am short because the pair has been acting weak as of late. That's all.

I was short in size until they established the peg. Similarly long JPY during the half a dozen or so BOJ interventions. I didn't suffer any slippage to write home about.

No macro thinking, no fundamental reasoning. Probably there are dozens of very good fundamental reasons for either side of the trade. Why bother? To me - just by means of anecdotal observation - many players are betting on one side of the boat thinking it's a no-risk 100% sure-fire bet to...

I was short SHLD a few times during the run from 40 to 80 and had to exit not only because price went against me but also because it cost 50+% annualized to borrow the shares. I re-shorted around $80 @ 80% annualized rebate and luckily it unraveled quickly. With these high rebate stocks...

Looks like I am the only one? :confused:

Daal has made the point a few times and I agree: % of trading account may be a popular metric to gauge conviction, but % of networth is much better IMO. What good is knowing I commit 15% of my trading account to a trade when the account value is a mere 5% of my networth (aka 'gambling with...

Yes, but you pay the options premium for that advantage. If the market senses increased gap risk then IV will usually be bloated. That's why I said I don't think option straddles (or whatever directional mechanism one chooses) are better or worse than outright positions with stops, just a matter...

A typical trendfollowing approach with stops and no profit target is basically a synthetic option. If you get stopped out for a loss that'd be the analogy for option premium paid that expires worthless. There's a number of academic research on 'lookback straddles' as a synthetic way to...

I enjoy reading your posts about economics and trading (i.e. posts that match the topic of the tread). I can't read them if I put you on ignore. I don't care much for your and Ghost of Cutten's lengthy and completely off-topic discussion on philosophy (i.e. posts that don't belong in this...

If the discussion between the two of you was posted in a separate, dedicated thread then it could reach even more forum users who may find it useful. Here, IMO, it's completely off-topic.

What was US GDP growth in 1998 compared to today? Maybe that's one reason the impact of the Asian implosion on the US was muted. GDP grew 4.5% in 1998, now we're creeping around 2-2.5%. Any external shock will be felt much more strongly in the US than 15 years ago.

You two should consider exchanging your philosophical discourse in a separate thread or entirely in private messages.

US trendline growth appears to be closer to 2%, maybe 2.5% right now compared with 4-4.5% in 1998. Those who use the Asian currency crisis as a blueprint to gauge the impact of a European recession on US GDP are missing that. The US economy is much more vulnerable to an external trade shock now...

Instead of rationalizing your bias, what about putting the cards on the table and telling us how much of your total net worth you have in your long equities trade. What good is three pages full of arguments to double down on your longs if you only bet a fraction of your assets on the trade...

EURCHF printed around 1.2000 for a second there. Getting out the popcorn.

That's quite an absurd way of proving your argument, isn't it. How many top chefs have been world-level iron man competitors as well? How many top tennis players have been world-class pianists? The lack of exceptional multi-talents is potentially a function of excessive time devoted to the...

What about your very own 'bond yields are low so investors are forced to bid up equities' or 'companies are beating analyst expectations so that's bullish' theories? That's no data mining? Have you tested them over hundreds of international equity markets? What about walk-forward testing...

Take the MSCI World total return, indexed in USD and adjust it for inflation for 1970-1980 and you'll weep.

Then (at lower prices) it was 'too expensive'. Now (at higher prices) it's a 'bargain'. Hilarious.

This feels nothing like 1999.