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Good point.....

I agree on that actually. But I think it is very useful to compare IV with HV. When you see IV higher than HV, there is the *potential* for a trade there, but you have to ask yourself , is the IV maybe high for a good reason (as you pointed out earlier). If so, of course you do not want...

True and I noted that.

So? My statement is still correct.

I said if it is consistently higher. In other words, if, time and time again, over a long period, IV is higher than HV, the options sold during that period will be profitable (on average).

If IV is consistently higher than HV, then selling options will be profitable on average, because the underlying will not reach the extreme price levels anticipated by the IV. Of course this is all on average. Momentary price moves could still take you out.

Google has posted a Safe browsing advisory dated Dec 24 saying that there are 5 pages on Elite Trader pointing to malware on penetraterarest dot pro. (It should be obvious but do not go to this site or the other one mentioned below) It says that the site journaldugeek dot com is also...

I guess you could have suffered the same devastating loss if all your communications went down, or a rare emergency caused sudden market closure. I think the best way to protect against such contingencies is to have cheap long out of the money options in place, where feasible. By the way...

I have been following his weekly updates (now discontinued) and newsletters for quite a few years. All of his clients lost most of their money in the PFG collapse. That is why he lowered the account minimum as he starts up over again with a new clearing firm. He does look for at least...

He does go on to explain that he trades mainly on the basis of seasonal patterns. I think one needs to build up one's own personalized approach. These books are good inputs to this process - to see how others approach it.

That's great that you like R (S) also. Thanks for the tips - I know from your posts that you know a lot more about options than I do. I am planning on doing it in R as far as my own work goes. I had been thinking of doing some preliminary testing in Excel first. I look at a lot of...

I respect your judgment. I certainly will try out Quantlib and I guess that may be a better way to go. Also, have you looked at the options pricing models in R? They seem very comprehensive. R does not offer a SpreadSheet as such but you can do similar things with data.table plus the...

The product integration and testing and support is important too to many users. The cost is extremely low to individuals. Something like OptionVue costs thousands a year. His product has been adopted by the Australian Stock Exchange http://www.asx.com.au/resources/modelling_tool.htm...

Actually Hoadley has a million things that are not anywhere else. (Of course not everyone needs them). http://financialducksinarow.com/4078/ubti-in-an-ira/ You can use it as a Library within Excel directly - you do not need to use his applications at all. You can write your own using his...

That is not exactly because you might lose more money than you have in your account. If that were the reason, futures trading would not be allowed in IRA's, and it is allowed. The reason you cannot sell naked calls is that doing so could result in a margin loan, would would result in UBTI...

Actually many/most commodity brokers allow the purchase of T-Bills for margin purposes without requiring the opening of a securities account. (As a matter of fact most futures brokers are not even licensed as securities dealers). It is extremely common (or at least was until rates went to...

The original poster did not mention SIPC. Posting tbills as margin would suggest he has a futures account, where SIPC is not applicable.

The broker actually does not impose any restrictions in this case, but there are still some that arise out of tax law. Qualified plans would have to pay 35% UBTI tax on any "debt-financed" profits, and file appropriate returns. Stock margin is considered debt for this purpose. So you would...

I believe that in the MF Global case they did not give TBills any special priority but liquidated them and pooled the result with cash for the purpose of preliminary distributions on a percentage basis etc. There was no advantage to TBills over cash. The same in the PFG case.

You can set up your own 401k independent of any broker, make yourself the trustee, and then open brokerage accounts as you wish in the name of the plan with no restrictions. I have such a plan for only $250 a year from http://www.401kadm.com/ and there are others as well if you search on...