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I read the other thread, I posted there too. I'm on your side that fib lines are hokum. Even if they are not, there is no way to use them to predict the future. I would want to see someone explain fibs conditionally, something like this: "after a big move, if the retracement crosses the...

Did any of the individual traders lose money, aside from their own bad trades?

Houses aren't a commodity, like an ounce of gold or a bushel of corn. They are all different; some have hot tubs, others have shag carpeting. But we can average them together by aggregating them into a package of similar priced houses, like a large contract of 1000 $100k houses (some might be...

I don't get how this has anything to do with Fibs. Those retracement didn't happen anywhere near fib lines, and it wouldn't matter if they did or not. All you are betting on is a retracement, period. This doesn't prove or disprove fibs. Your results would be the same if you picked up shares...

Your word to punctuation ratio rendered this post unreadable.

You're saying if I have a mortgage at 30 years, it is better to pay it off early, in say 15 years? That way I have 15 extra years of no interest payments. So it would be even better to pay it off in 10 years, and better still to pay it off in 5 years.. still with me? I guess the best thing...

Kids? That's the big deciding factor. If it's just the two of you, go for it. If you try and fail then you and your wife can move to a smaller place and both work, and you're just a lousy trader. No big deal, a lot of us here are lousy traders (myself included). If you have kids and you...

http://www.freestockcharts.com/ Amazing for a free site. A skyscraper banner down the right side is all there is. I click on whatever ad is showing every hour or so to help them out, hopefully they get paid by the clickthru.

I'm getting mixed signals here. :P I understand that in an extreme black swan where international markets crumble crumble, everybody with skin in the game gets burned. What I'm wondering is let's say I'm trading just a contract or two of commodity X. Is it possible that the other side of...

My phone doesn't have Firefox :(

I'm hopelessly naive here, but do I have counterparty risk trading gold and wheat futures sitting here in my underwear? Or is this only a worry for some dark-pool international trading consortium that I'm not a part of?

How long do you hold each position on average?

Chinese gov't is very good at controlling information.

I got a job as a software developer right here in the US of A. I'm in my mid-30's, I have no college degree at all, no on-the-job coding experience for the previous 8 years, I didn't know anyone at the firm that hired me. If you want a job, there is a job out there that wants you. You...

It's an integral (or derivative or whatever) relationship. As the market approaches infinity, VIX approaches zero. If the market doubled from here, VIX would be cut in half. If the market went up 10x, Vix would be a tenth of what it is now.

touché

Not talking about a hedge, I mean a short term directional bet. You mean expire? We could always buy a bull spread, but I was more talking about shorts and puts in a day trade or overnight time frame instead of holding until expiry.

It's worth it to chase a 1% downside move on a thinly traded stock? I can't imagine it would be worth your time for less than 10k shares, probably 50k or 100k. What are the fees for borrowing that many shares? What time frame would you be looking at for this kind of move? AGU is up, so I...

Never a problem with borrowing shares. You can roll the contract forward as it nears expiration if you are long-term bearish. Yes this costs, but you have to pay interest on a long-term short position also, right? Doesn't tie up margin. More bang for the buck. An ATM second or third...

Look forward to the next bar and combine it with the current bar. Buy at the high of those two, sell at the low. If my strat can't make money under these conditions, I keep looking. I figure once I find a profitable strat with this kind of handicap, I will be pleasantly surprised when I...