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Holy Grail of trading: Win rate = 50% Profit factor: 5 Plenty of systems around. Some are two lines of code. Problem is they are too heavy on health.

He said weeks. He is an option seller.:)

A $300 Billion fiscal stimulus without proper targeting will end up in China in 2 - 3 years. Then the Chinese will try to lend it back to the US. This is a vicious circle. This is the problem to be solved.

Lol. You are correct. This guy's typical pattern lately. I put him on ignore also. TraDaTor gave the correct answer IMO: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3288938#post3288938

No convincing argement yet in favor of randomness in the markets. I still think the market is completely deterministic, we just do not know the initial conditions and the model. Lack of knowledge not = randomness

There are programd that do this but I'm not sure how they escape curve-fitting even though their developers claim they do: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2968698#post2968698 TSL is such an example but the price tag is just too high for individuals. At the other side...

No and Why should it be avoided? "Well" has many different meanings for different people. Some look at Sharpe, others at pf, others at win rate, and so on. Of course, almost everything in life is based on hindsight bias. Why do you think this is bad? One goes to college and takes...

That is exactly what he (DT-waw) assumes but the funny thing is that he doesn't understand his own assumptions and later comes to invalidate them. He is also using them selectively.

But do not expect it to happen this coming Monday:)

Use slope of regression line.

I see several pin bars before intermediate corrections and that prompts me to say this is a chart of a real instruments. possibly some forex pair. In this thinking of mine, there is also the possibility of asserting the consequence in non random -> patterns and by seeing patterns...

What does this have to do with what SunTrader posted?

+1 Pure randomness theorist commit the notorious formal fallacy of asserting the consequence. See the true implication: Random generator -> random patterns Then if they see a pattern in market data they assert the consequence of the previous implication and they claim it must be from a...

This is too old. The motion of the devices is coupled to each other when they are put on the cans. It is a coupling effect. There is nothing wired going on. After some transient motion they are suncronized.

I agree but it is not curve-fitting and that was my point. Selection bias may turn out to be a good and even necessary process for trading system development. On the other hand, optimization should be avoided. Two different things. Some imbeciles confuse the two but I do not know...

I think the only one who cannot grasp what he wrote is you. I bet many read your false dichotomy above and laughed on the floor. False dichotomy it is because you classify all systems either as curve fit or random. There are also systems that are intelligent enough to make consistent high...

I think you are wrong. Selection bias is not equivalent to curve fitting. Selection bias is a process followed by nature and peope every day in their life. You select your mate, your house, your job, you college. But you may be from some country where they fitted on you your mate...

This is why people with many viruses in their body like you are of threat to me. Do you have any valid intelligent points to make as to why the simple rule: Buy if the close of today if higher than the high of yesterday is a curve fitted rule? If you don't, it means you are a moron...

I agree but its developer is in a country where people have learned to live with less and produce more. He must be a very intelligent person.

This looks to me like a 11-17 MACD system. Fairly fitted stuff.