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    devaluation of the dollar

    The dollar moved down in a few days an amount of pips it took a year and a half to cover before. This is not a good sign. If you hold foreign currency why investing in an economy when the exchange risk is much higher than any potential reward?
  2. I

    Looking for High Reward/Risk Investments

    No Ponzi schemes? Then you gotta look in some parallel universe with different Anthropic constants.
  3. I

    Just show me one mechanical technical analysis that has been profitably backtested?

    If your definition of "mechanical technical analysis" includes OHLC formations then this program will find you hundreds, if not thousands of systems, across several markets: http://www.tradingpatterns.com/ Of course, the problem is whether these systems will stay profitable in the future...
  4. I

    devaluation of the dollar

    A stupidity bubble is worse. FED is trying to solve a credit crunch by lowering interest rates to zero. This will not change the fears of banks and hoarding mentality and will not have an impact on aggregate supply. However, it will affect the dollar and commodities will go up along...
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    of Turkeys and Swans... Taleb

    Why should I believe him? It's all dogmatic. He has no proof for that. The burden of proof is on him. By just saying so and talking about black swans and randomnss without presenting a rigorous model is ridiculus and shows complete ignorance. Black swans happen infrequently and by saying that...
  6. I

    Negative Interest Rates

    In the case of banks, negative interest rate would mean that depositors pay the bank to take their money. Yes, it has happened with Swiss Banks I believa in the 1970s during the energy crisis, depositors paid a fee for having the bank keep the money due to the rapid appreciation of the Swiss...
  7. I

    devaluation of the dollar

    Free market? You surely have a totally distorted view of what constitutes a free market. Certainly, not one with a banch of idiots trying to cause hyperinflation. Next, I want to see the US economy real strong, not in steroids.
  8. I

    devaluation of the dollar

    Sure and send oil to $200 and beyond. Any kind of policy is restricted by energy prices and imported inflation. Given the trade deficit, the FED just delivered to itself a pink slip.
  9. I

    devaluation of the dollar

    It looks nice though. Family car. You and your woman in the front and Mr. Inflation and Mr. Plunging Dollar in the back.
  10. I

    devaluation of the dollar

    I guess you and I live in parallel universes then... Good for you...enjoy your prosperity!
  11. I

    devaluation of the dollar

    Even with the low rates banks won't be able to lower loan rates due to negative real interest rate. They are also required to give back to the government 5% on the money they got. Lowering interest rates won't do anything to correct the problem. People cannot borrow more and banks won't lend...
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    Where does destroyed wealth go?

    Wealth depends on valuations. When people are willing to pay more for the same quantity, wealth increases. When people are willing to pay less for same quantity, wealth decreases. The use of the term "wealth destruction" is a red herring. Wealth changes value depending on the status of the...
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    of Turkeys and Swans... Taleb

    Taleb commits the logical fallacy of Appeal to Ridicule: “Six Nobel prizes were handed out to people whose work was nothing but BS,” he gripes. “They convinced the financial world that it had nothing to fear.” Using the same ridiculus reasoning one could blame Newton for his failed...
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    Where does destroyed wealth go?

    Often, valuation is used to describe wealth. Mark-to-market that is. They actually mean that valuations dropped that much. Do you know of a better system to describe wealth?
  15. I

    Jim Rogers strikes again

    http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Jim%20Rogers%20Plans%20to%20Sell%20Dollar%20in%20%60Artificial'%20Rally&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vKShqTujr0EU.asf By the way, can anyone explain what are the implications of his last words "supply is going down faster than demand"...
  16. I

    Where does destroyed wealth go?

    So what do you think the Chinese can do with US money other than invest it back in US? The way I see it, it is the Chinese who are in trouble. The trade deficit of a world reserve currency acts as financing rather than wealth redistribution...
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    ib usually good---usually

    You know, they hate changed orders:)
  18. I

    Which backtesting software to learn?

    If you think you have an idea that can provide an edge so that it will pay to get involved in a subject with a steep learning curve then you should do it. If you think testing ideas is a convergent process to an edge there is a high probability you will be disappointed. Regardless, I...
  19. I

    Why favorable R:R?

    You are welcome. The first 6 chapters of the book contain valuable and down to earth information for both discretionary and systematic traders. If you are into backtesting you will find the section about pitfalls in chapter 6 very interesting.
  20. I

    Why favorable R:R?

    True only at the limit, i.e. for a sufficiently large number of trades. In the short term, nothing can be said about the monkey performance. Zero profit equals zero expectancy only at the limit.
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