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I don't think anyone has to buy any books to read about position sizing. There is plenty of free material around: 1. Excellent article by Trader Mike 2. Michael R. Bryant on position sizing 3. Fixed fractional position sizing 4. %Kelly clarified here There is no evidence optimal...

It is correct what you hear, theoretically speaking. Nobody has ever proved that over the longer term, returns from technical analysis can exceed 50%. Given transaction costs, in the longer term use of technical analysis leads to losses, theoretically. Now, what separates good trades from...

Peace... I don't understand what the fighting is all about. You didn't get that answer from me though. If your stop tuning affects the entry points of your system then it is curve fitting. If curve fitting is involved that way, then it is highly probable the system will fail, sooner than...

He sounds like a gambler to me. I hope he continuous trading because we need the noise he generates.

What do you mean with "IB"? Your conclusion is a disconnected fallacy. You can replace "IB" with "X". "Say you got 30 k, Say you can trade too, you won't be making money with X." This last claim is as disconnectd as yours. If you cannot make money with "IB" you cannot make money with any "X".

Again you stubbornly miss the point. Curve fitting has to do with finding a curve that approximates a data series in some optimal way. Selecting a 7 min OHLC series from tick data is not curve-fitting either. All the information of the former series is in the latter. The OHL information is...

You confuse curve-fitting with selection bias. You can not curve fit C > O but you can select C > H instead. I think he makes that clear in that link. Trading systems can be modeled as discrete sequences of entry and exit points generated by some process. Any curve fitting must eventually be...

I think for real traders with a real track record it is evident without reference to math. Optimal anti-martingale bet sizing theoretically never blows up but in practice you are left with a fraction of the capital, not even enough to post margin. If this happens at start - and it happened to me...

Lol, very true, everyone using optimal bet sizing has probably blown up. Power laws are normal distributions only at the limit of infinite trades, which implies infinite capital resources. http://mathworld.wolfram.com/BinomialDistribution.html

This is an important topic. I think as long as you develop a system by analyzing its performance in relation to a price series than some type of curve-fitting is involved inevitably. The issue is not whether their is curve-fitting but whether it is major or minor in the sense of this rule...

To OP, What is your success rate and avg. win to avg. loss ratio?

Why not a 139 tick chart? :)

Good question...If it is mentioned here next week it will apear in the book of some author who has never traded. I have tried most known and some unknown methods. I decided to stick to very small risk percent per trade. I think the emphasis should be placed on finding a system that generates...

If you want to have control over risk there is no other choice but to use the risk percent method. It is not necessary to keep the risk precent constant but the method provides a means of calculating position size to control the risk provided of course you know the exit price. For example, you...

Good link. Many good ideas there.

The above website you mentioned states: "This ultimately leads us to be able to test the hypotheses with specific data -- a confirmation (or not) of our original theories." This is false. A hypothesis can be in most cases only falsified. It can never be confirmed. Can you ever confirm...

Forex is a risk transaction between counterparties. Your A sells to B and B sell to C, etc. and all profit at the end can be true only in the case of stocks, when A issues stock through an IPO. Even in that case, when these transactions are viewed relative to benchmark returns, they are zero-sum...

This is also true about physics. All fundamental theories, like Relativity and Quantum Mechanics, were developed something like 80 to 100 years ago. No major breakthrough since in terms of a fundamentally new theory. Michael Harris developed a new indicator about 10 years ago, the...

Travis, Should we differentiate between algorithmic trading as perceived by the brokerage industry and automated trading as perceived by traders? I think there is a lot of confusion in this area. Algorithms as far as brokerages and ECNs are efficient or optimum ways of looking for...