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This is my post from 5/13. Did not want to write the whole thing again so just bumped it. The last week has been absolutely beautiful. Watch the bond market closely. My guesss is after S&P gets to 1240, we'll see a bounce to around 1280 and the sell-off that will come will take us into a...

If we go below 1240, we might see a crash but not right now. If one was to look at the weekly or monthly change in prices, then this market is still in a Bull phase. We might see S&P around 1240-1260 in few weeks but that still doesn't make it a bear market. After we get to 1240, there...

“Every new high in a bull market is bullish...except the last.” It's not my quote but pretty darn good.

Let's start with your story.

In the past 2-3 weeks we saw two upside price-surges on above average volume. Usually when something like that happens, we see follow-through in the direction of the previous movement. Today's action proved that there is no real long-term buying here to support the higher prices. I think that...

I think 1 YM long and 1 ES short would be better as YM has been out-performing ES.

Yes, but on 2 contracts only. I never got a chance to put in the other two since when the market opened it was already past my sell point. Need to rethink the whole strategy. I have been killed by trying to pick the top. From now on I'll just follow the trend ie. 200 day MA. As long as...

For tomorrow I will look to fade today's high. Sell-limit 2@ 1321.50 Stop: 1323.50 for all 4 contracts. The two positions are day-trading positions. Monday will probably be a low-volatility day. I will wait till Wednesday to get back in the market. If we close higher after Tuesday, we'll...

I know a guy that used to post here, manages money for a bank. He still visits the site but does not post at all.

I'm looking at the bonds too. It made a new low again. One another thing that I just noticed is that when the ATR today > 2* Avg. ATR 5 days and Volume today > 2* Avg. Vol. 5 days, the market should move in that particular direction. If it cannot do that it is a sign of exhusation. We saw that...

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On a risk/reward basis this trade makes sense to me. I'm risking about 11 pts. on 2 contracts for a total of $550. This market does not have to necessarily top here, just a pull-back to 1285 will be fine. Although I agree that there is nothing good going for the Republican these days, it is...

Staying short here. Expecting more weakness tomorrow. Will take parrtial profits @ 1301.

Short 2 contracts.

Sell-limit: 1318 Stop: 1323.5

The Bulls looked tired the last few weeks and the Bears got the catalyst today. Although I missed the sell-limit price today by .50 pts. I still have some put options. I think this is it. Next Stop: 1285.

Looks like ES closed at 1319 but they marked as 1316. So for tomorrow Sell-limit: 1323 instead of 1319. Stop: 1327.

A close above 1315 SP Cash or some follow thorough after a huge up-day will make me look for opportunities from the long-side. Right now I'd rather sell at resistance than buy at support. I think we are just getting started for a nice move down.

Here is my plan for Monday. The price is currently near the upper band but MFI has beeen in a downtrend since the week of March 20th. In the last two weeks we witnessed two large up- Volume days on 4/18 and 4/27, but the market has been unable to follow through to the upside. This looks...

Here are the indicators. I use: Daily charts (O-H-L-C), Bollinger Bands (13, 1), Money Flow Index (13), Volume and My Value-Range from the day-trading journal. It is a divergence method between the daily price and the MFI. When the prices are trading near/above the upper band and...