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I would like to see someone serve up the smackdown at 111.

The up trend channel is broken so now all it has to do for me is get under Friday's low (27) and I can hold overnight. In such a scenario I would keep a stop over the nearest s/r level that risks no more than 25% of profits from today. I actually haven't tested this holding overnight part, it...

stops to 2, same reason as before

Regardless of what happens today, I think situations like these are where my trading could improve. Such a critical point is perhaps a good place to partial out 1/3. What I have found though is that partialing out is a trade off: you get a more stable equity curve but less overall profit in...

My work says if it retraces to 4 then chances are we've seen the low, so that's where my stop is now. Coincidentally, it corresponds to my b/e point for today.

Looks to me like 111 is a critical point today. Bottom of a 2 day trend channel but also bottom of a 3 day hinge. Personally i'm hoping for a breakdown here.

These are good goals but you cannot "try" to accomplish them every day any more than a fat woman can "try" to lose a pound a week. They are diagnostics. You follow your methodology perfectly every day then look at the results monthly. If the dieter is not losing a pound a week then she needs...

I heard that bid/asks are tilted against your position. So that would mean yes!

Lots of good advice here. He's doing a lot better than I did my first year. I lost ~20k. I took me 1 1/2 years to get to the point where I demanded an edge that I could show on paper, otherwise I would not trade. Then it took me another 5 months to start to find some edges. Then I started...

Absolutely correct. Not true. You've made an excellent observation but drawn the wrong conclusion. To read about techniques for separating them out, see "Statistics for Experimenters" by Box, Box, and Hunter. (Bonus: they just came out with a new edition.)

misctrader-- the way your are figuring risk/reward is bass-ackward. The risk is where your initial hard stop is, and the reward is where you can reasonably expect the trade to go if it works out. All of this is known before the trade is opened. Furthermore, if something changes after you open...

Today was statistically odd in that it is rare to see the t-notes have a big up day after selling off that much from yesterday's low. I was short after the lower high in the potential R zone ~111 (and took a small loss of course). Apparently, a lot of other traders were too.

I haven't done any work with them.

My work tells me it is very likely that the HOD and LOD are already in (155 and 15).

Yes, God forbid there be a thread on ET where someone is BSing... anyway... here's my story. I'm an at-home trader not a prop or pro trader. So I catch one of those 20-tick+ moves at the ZN open one morning, and just at that moment my little 3 year old wakes up and walks in. I go to pick him...

On every trade we make, someone has the other side and is "trading against us". The profitable trader gets the best of it and gives the sucker bet to the other side. So every trade I make, I thank whoever it is trading against me. If it's my broker, that's his problem.

Now all you need is to turn the scenarios into actionable instructions... "if the market opens in this range, I will place these orders...." and "after the open, if price moves into this range, I will modify/place orders as follows.." etc. etc. After you get all of that written down, your...

OldStyle: Thanks for the explanation of a 2:1 NOB. I think you'd be much better off if you did your thinking on Saturday, and your execution on Sunday night/Monday! Decide before the market opens exactly what you will do when price hits various levels... all the scenarios... as if you had...

I noticed on the daily chart, the T-Notes are at the bottom of the range that the March contract traded in. Probably we had longer term traders involved today. That was a pretty big beat down from 111.

Wish I knew what a 2:1 NOB was!!