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Resumption of the long-term trend. Bomb scare in Rome.

Given the proliferation of trend-following as a methodology across all spectrums and types of investors, I think that a valid case can be made for inefficiencies and edges being created by this use of this strategy in certain shorter-term time horizons.

I was just noticing the big drop in EUR/GBP. Are your comments related to a recent issue in Europe?

Cutten, thank you for your post and implied questions. The long-term trend guides the only direction of my trades. In other words, during a long-term uptrend, I will not enter short EUR trades, I will only enter trades from the long side. I use risk managment and stop losses to attempt to...

I think both the proponents as well as detracters of trend-following on this thread have focused too much on the "science" or "math" behind trend-following. It is obvious that if their was a 'holy grail' such as trend-following or any other method for that matter, it would have been found and...

I personally think that it is very difficult to mathematically test the concept of 'trend' because one needs a time-frame of reference. Timeframe is ambigious and is different for different people. If the next 2 ticks are down, to someone, that's a downtrend. However, to another, they are only...

Last I heard, he was at A.B. Watley. Not sure now.

Is that suit still ongoing? I thought it must have been settled/decided by now?

Yea, that's him. The most ridiculous call he made was on the California energies that he refused to sell until he lost more than $10 Million on those trades (maybe it was more than $20 Million). The guy was definately one for the Hall of Fame of trading characters and personalities. He and Tony...

Anyone have any stories about a guy named Billy Horn? He was the funniest trading personality I have ever witnessed.

I'm not smart enough to understand the fundamental drivers of the currencies, they always seem to be changing. Maybe the direction of the trend influences the perception of the fundamentals or even influences the actual fundamentals themselves- reminds me of reflexivity. In my opinion, the...

Did you look at the 3-year daily bar chart? If so, you are certainly entitled to your opinion. I just ask if you looked. I for one am on the bid in large size buying around 1.3050 in futures. That is why i'm up at 5 am New York time. :)

This is great trade location to be buying EUR. I may sound like a broken record, and truth is, recently, I've had a few false starts which I wound up dumping, but, that's part of the territory. The overall trend in EUR is still clearly up (looked at a 3 year daily bar chart recently?) and this...

Wow. I had to dump.

I'm gearing up to buy more EUR on a break above 1.3300 here.

Trend following is one part science, two parts art, and one part religion. We cannot prove it's existance, we just know it's there.

I can never trade short time frames. I find them close to random. Euro looks like it's stabilizing here, although, I can imagine one more push to new lows to take out some stops. I'm going to buy more on a break to new lows or a break above 1.3300 today.

Good luck to us! :)

You came back just in time to buy some Euros. :) I just bought some 1.3285 (June) and will continue to buy down to 1.3250 or continue to buy them higher as it hopefully moves in my favor!

Hank, if you are short Oil, you would agree that you are going against the longer-term trend, no? If I am a short in Oil, I am certainly going to cover quicker on a downtick than I ordinarly would in a sideways or falling overall environment, hence perpetuating the trend. Trend must include some...