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That seems like a discipline issue. What helped me with this type of problem was backtesting every idea I had, also live trading them over a couple years, and finally seeing through experience what I wanted to do. If you are not fully convinced that what you are doing puts the odds in your...

Just like 2 weeks ago, 5 weeks ago, and 8 weeks ago? I see one itty bitty little red candle at the top of mountain of volume and momentum. You could be right, but I thought you needed to wait for volume to fall off before shorting a parabola? :confused:

BAC looks like a missile firing off a launch pad. Its flight path has been very strong. I hope you were long........

I'd get out.

My standard tech analysis text is Technical Analysis Explained by Pring, and The Wave Principle by Prechter and Frost. I know, I know, Prechter aint what he used to be, but if you want the standard on elliot wave (which I consider to be VERY useful once you've mastered the compound nature and...

It's OK to be in the market when it's going up.

You are a contrary indicator.

Trade long options for a year. With luck, you'll get such a spanking that you will never again think you have markets figured out. Then, go back to trading RegT equities, long only. Problem solved. :D

Or you could just take the other side of his trade. He blew up. :D

Hi Bill, Did you make any money trading today? :D

Market seems to want to keep going up.

This may or may not be a valid assumption, but there are other ways to calibrate your trend following system. Not all successful organisms are cockroaches (able to survive in almost any environment), but few elegant animals can survive outside of their niche habitat. The key is to design your...

Humans are very good at picking up patterns where none exist.

This is why part of the process of being successful involves gauging the time frame to capture the most relevant paths which encompass trends and chop. I had my strategies fail if trained on only 1 year of data, but hold up if given 4+. The difference: variance in the signals therein gave the...

Human behavior in groups can only be calculated so far. This may be the source of your 20 excursion into what doesn't work. I sense that you are looking for certainty, however you must realize the deal you strike with the market when you provide your services....... you take on risk in...

I personally watch 787s being assembled on a daily basis. The aircraft is a work of art. The level of detail and quality is the best I've ever seen. It's really amazing.

The OP asked for a setup, not the full grail. I'm surprised you gurus didn't point this out, being all enlightened and such.........

My opinion: I see wildly different price action over different stock sectors and have also noticed the GBP difference in currencies. Some markets are too noisy for trend following strats, but they're great for range algos. I don't see the logic in discarding a strat that works well in one...

I hope you're right! -ISTP, engineer & system trader :D

Bollinger band breakout