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Good thread. Another great read is Trading Systems by Jaekle and Tomasini. It basically lays out the entire process of designing, testing, overfitting and then correcting the overfit of a forex trend system. Really good stuff that confirms what you've already found if you've been there...

My good friend. Congrats on starting, and on starting with real money. Also, kudos for using a small account. With time, your mind will hopefully start to change from "I can afford to lose" to "I can never lose more than a tiny fraction of my account in the worst possible scenario."...

Wave 4 never comes below the top of wave 1.

The price action in the major indices is very troubling. The Market is reacting very negatively to the latest news. There haven't been any V shaped bounces in a long time. The Bernanke Put may have expired. :eek:

Bob Prechter might be able to answer this. But there also seems to be a slight correlation between members with 'turtle' in their handle and facetious posts........

When cars enter the freeway, they must use the on-ramp. When new money enters your fund, it seems obvious that it must be deployed through the next strategy entry. If the investor is too impatient to allow you to deploy their capital using your strategy, they might not be your kind of...

Prevailing sentiment is starting to get bearish.........

Good evening, my Elite Friends. What a strong down draft this week. I hope you all caught some tails on the short side. :) I've been feeling so risk averse that I sat it out, partly because we're still technically in an up trending market on the weekly charts, also because my job...

Capturing risk premium from hedgers seems to be slightly more difficult than capturing the rent that outsiders pay The House. Makes you wonder if we're all in the wrong business, trading and such. :eek:

What happens if you reoptimize on that data (2007 to present) and let it run forward for six months? It may be worth your time to find out.........

"I cut my winners short and let my losses run"

Profitable.

RPRX looks extremely strong. I will be stalking it next week. I missed the pop on friday but the wave count implies there is more to come. The big risk with these health companies is the FDA, lawsuits, fraud accusations, etc. The force behind this move seems to be the FDA's pending...

If we break support, very bearish. If it bounces (and I believe this is not expected by TA gurus because of the textbook bear flags all over the indices), it will be a classic compound third wave advance. But you may need to consult Grand Supercycle to get a forecast. :)

And conspiracy theories are any better? :cool:

+++ :)

SHLD trade debrief. The fact that it did not keep going up after the breakout was a strong warning that something was off. A day and a half later it's still lingering below the sell point. My ideal trade breaks out from a base with momentum divergence and a huge low volatility takeoff, and...

So it looks like everyone decided to sell.

Sold @ 57.00 for $27 profit. Not liking the price action for some reason. I wouldn't be surprised to see it launch from here. :)

It depends on what your strategy is. 2011 was very bad for trend following, 2012 is looking much better so far.