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    Great Depression II (2000-201?)

    Thankyou for clarifying.Actually,crsytal clear.After Japans last 12 years and the last 4 years of own economy,it seems unlikely to me that a meltdown would occur.But unfortunately ,to avoid such a scenario there is a price to be paid.Currency devaluation,and as we all know, that has never been...
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    High oil prices

    I know what you mean.Ive been going over this for a couple months with my room mate.We come away scratching our heads,because it seems so obvious.If you watched cnbc monday morning,they had a guest from the investment research institute out of Montana,and he basically made the same point.Thats...
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    finance based economy

    The disposable income numbers were reported on a monthly basis, up until 2-2.5 years ago.When the d.i. number hit zero,and then dipped into the negative range,on two reports,all of a sudden the d.i. numbers disappeared off the radar, never to be seen since.The 3% number was as a result of...
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    Great Depression II (2000-201?)

    Your post is a little vague,are you being sarcasticand dissing me,or do you agree the markets will go down, only you think it will be catastrofic.Please clarify.
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    Steel prices

    My knowledge on steel is no better than anyone elses,I dont think there are any futures or other derivitives that you trade on.I believe securities in steel companies is the only market available to us.I agree that China's consumption of this and other base metals is severely skewing the...
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    Steel prices

    My roomate, who is a general contractor,just told me about the new increases in steel prices.Concrete reinforcing steel(rebar),doubled in one day.Structural steel (I beams and heavy gauge steel)will double in price over the next thirty days.Lightweight steel(framing studs used mostly in...
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    newspaper article are the best contra indicator

    Speaking of contra indicators,one that seems to be proving itself on a consistent basis is when george say the economy is strong and growing.The first time he said this in the summer of 02 ,two weeks later the fed informed us thet we had been in a recession seven months earlier.If the economy...
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    Great Depression II (2000-201?)

    Not that its impossible, just think its improbable.
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    finance based economy

    Not this quarter but last quarter of 03 GM didnt make a profit selling cars , the profit came from the lending they did.
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    what about gold?

    Im referring to the futures and options expiration date at the end of May, I believe its actually the 21st of May.I think we'll surpass the 432 high in may only to give it back at the end of May.
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    finance based economy

    Most every body seems to be over looking the fact that the average family disposable income is only 3%. It was 0 before the fed lowered interest rates 13 times.There is a limit to how long this will last.Disposable income was 50% in1992.Look at the household durable goods numbers which have been...
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    Great Depression II (2000-201?)

    For those who think there will be some type of calamitous crash, there is one fact that is inescapeable.That would be the most important difference between now and the crash of '29.Today the fed has the ability to pump tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy in the space of...
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    High oil prices

    since the dollar has lost 35% of its value against the euro over the last two years,if you price crude in 2000 dollars the price would be in the 22 to24 dollar range. Everyone is seemingly still out to lunch on this fact.This is why opec is continually changing production output,to compensate...
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    Have we seen the Market High for the year?

    No,there is still more stimulous to come. In my opinion we'll top out between 11500 and 12000 in sept. or oct.,This top will coincide with the realization that this year+ rally was artificially induced by all the stimulous and that additional stimulous (lots more)will be required to keep this...
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    what about gold?

    Have any of your posts ever been censored?I mean removed from the et site altogether. It happened to me for the third time this week.
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    what about gold?

    hello Seth, I believe a more accurate statement would be that the euro is weakening.Prior to the last 10 trading days,gold was mirroring the euro 88% of the time.The last two weeks has been a very different story.Only time will tell and we may have the answer by the end of May .
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    kudlow and cramer gone

    Apparently,the lack of viewership was the downfall of the dynamic dimwitts.In their infinate wisdom cnbc replaced them with Dennis Miller,who of coarse is an economics expert,but would be lost without his dictionary.He'll probably last about as long as he did on Monday night football.Cnbc's...
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    newspaper article are the best contra indicator

    The reason silver is taking a breather here is because all base metals are taking a breather here,and for that matter just about all commodities are.Its profit taking across the board,pure and simple.Since the media has been decidedly bullish over the last year despite valuation problems,and the...
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    GOLD looks good!

    I should have said the gold sector will experience profit taking at futures and options expiration date.
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    Consumer Confidence and Credit Card Deliq. GOING DOWN THE TOILET

    Compared to most to you, I dont trade that much, but I wanted remind everybody that the military spending will be included in the second quarter gdp numbers.Last year,military spending accounted for 70% of gdp in the second quarter. If the market continues down ,the bottom should be around the...
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