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  1. Sotnis

    Too Simple to Work? Advice Needed

    Your strategy actually looks pretty good. Simple can be good. It will surely have losing periods though. How many markets are you trading it in, as maybe some diversification will help to avoid massive drawdowns? I'm doing something like this myself and use currency ETFs. My account's not big...
  2. Sotnis

    Saudi Arabia to run out of cash in less than 5 years

    Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, needs to sell oil at around $106 to balance its budget, according to IMF estimates. The kingdom barely has enough fiscal buffers to survive five years of $50 oil, the IMF said. That's why Saudi Arabia is moving fast to preserve cash. The kingdom...
  3. Sotnis

    Why do you think you can make money trading?

    All markets are sum equal to zero, yes, where supply equals demand the sum is basically zero. The point is that markets are dynamic and when something happens that make some actors to think the price has to change, i.e. 11/09, Greek crisis and /or some fundamental indicators announcement the...
  4. Sotnis

    Quick reference for real trading profit. Tips that work

    I would like to put together a one line reference board of traders top tips. No drawn out methodologies please. These are covered elswhere and can (in my case anyway) vanish from the brain the next day. A short preface if need be, then the one line pearl of wisdom. This way the one liners...
  5. Sotnis

    Covered call mechanics

    Ok so I have made +30% on a stock and would like to start selling covered calls because it's at its 52 week high but I don't want to just sell it. I plan on holding 5-10+ years and adding throughout time. Would it be a good idea to sell these covered calls OTM? Also if those covered calls become...
  6. Sotnis

    How to short a stock in three easy steps

    Many investors try and short a stock way too early as they believe the stock price is way overvalued. However many times a stock that is overvalued in price may become even more overvalued especially when the stock market is in an extended upward move. From my experience, the proper time to...
  7. Sotnis

    Finding investors to start a hedge fund

    1st thing, get some money (at least 100K) and build a real track record trading real money in a separate account. Back testing doesn't mean jack. Personally, I'm not a fan of quant strategies because they work until they don't. Seems like quants are always making excuses and tweaking the models...
  8. Sotnis

    Q2 Investor Letters and Reports

    Alluvial Capital Arquitos Capital Partners Berkshire Hathaway Centaur Funds Chou Funds Coho Capital Donville Kent East Coast Asset Management Fairholme Funds FRMO Corp GMO Greenhaven Road Greenlight Capital Greenwood Investors Horizon Kinetics Howard Marks Memo Khrom Capital Longleaf Partners...
  9. Sotnis

    Roth IRA vs Regular IRA

    It seems like a roth ira would be better to open at a young age rather than a regular. is this true? my reasoning if you have a roth IRA you don't lose taxes when you take out money but regular you would. so for example if you put 5500 in at an age of 20 and waited till 60+ to take it out it...
  10. Sotnis

    Thoughts on long OTM SPY calls

    Hello, I'm currently looking at OTM SPY 225 calls for Jan 16. Right now these are going for .03 to .04. Many S&P500 projections point towards high growth by the start of next year. Let's just arbitrarily say these end up worth $2. That's a 6566.67% gain. This $2 value could come from either...
  11. Sotnis

    What's your process/method when valuing a stock?

    I love Rochon but one question I have been coming back to a lot recently is using EPS. He says 12% or better growth but a lot of companies are supplementing EPS growth with buybacks, pushing capital allocation into operations of the business. I'm wondering if it makes more sense to look at pure...
  12. Sotnis

    CFD vs Options

    I've never traded a CFD before, and I'm trying to figure out how they are better and sucking up all the liquidity in non-US markets. Case in point, options and futures liquidity in other equity/index markets, especially European and Hong Kong, is pathetic. People trade CFDs. From what I...
  13. Sotnis

    $EXXI

    $EXXI I am not a big fan of buying OTM calls.. but Jan 2016 $2.50 bid-.0.10 ask 0.40... probability of being ITM before exp. is high
  14. Sotnis

    MCD is in big trouble. May not exist in 5 years

    Went to McD's this morning ~11:30AM & found out that they ran through a week's supply of eggs in 6 hours! All day breakfast = great ER.
  15. Sotnis

    Here's the Precise Moment When We Should Have Known QE Went Wrong

    At some point during Fed QE, the markets started reacting positively to bad news. This is when things started going wrong. Bad news became good news for asset prices, as markets expected more QE by the Fed. Asset prices were increasingly deviating from fundamentals, as the markets were trading...
  16. Sotnis

    A really small Wall Street tax can make a really big difference

    In UK there are three types of tax you have to pay when trading shares, capital gains tax, income tax and stamp duty. However you need not worry about calculating stamp duty as it is dealt with by your broker when you enter a trade. The current stamp duty you pay on entering a trade is 0.5% so...
  17. Sotnis

    Who is believing in the current monetary policy is still the right course and why?

    Dear Gurus So I have been pretty wrong for the last few years thinking the increasing leverage, stock buy backs and PrivateE, Tech valuations are going to bring a lot of trouble for financial institutions. If the Fed doesn't increase rates, and even follows with another QE I feel like...
  18. Sotnis

    Market Review

    It's hardest to be really long here. That's why I think we squeeze. Late longs jump in and last bears exit. I'm fading the move
  19. Sotnis

    Increase of downside risks led Fed to hold off rate hike in September

    Fed officials held off of a rate hike in September as many thought downside risks had increased, according to minutes of the meeting released Thursday. Officials decided it would be "prudent" to wait, even though many thought that the weaker growth outlook for China that emerged in August and...
  20. Sotnis

    A really small Wall Street tax can make a really big difference

    While there are plenty of bright spots in the economy, there is reason to believe growth will once again slow down. One way to enlarge their sense of the possible: consider a source of revenue they have so far largely ignored – a small tax on sales of stocks, bonds, and complex financial...
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