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I specifically asked about market returns, not about the visual look of stock charts. According to your theory, in any timeframe (daily, weekly, annually) market returns follow a random distribution. If your theory was correct then the strong efficient market hypothesis would indeed correct...

Are market returns displaying a random distribution, like coin flips do?

Read this book if you believe material gains and money make us happy: "The Progress Paradox: How Life Gets Better While People Feel Worse" http://www.amazon.com/Progress-Paradox-Better-While-People/dp/0812973038/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1299364328&sr=1-1

20 years ago people were moaning about program trading now they whine about algo trading. There's always a scape goat du jour. "You adapt, evolve, compete or die" -- Paul Tudor Jones

I'd want to own oil MLPs.

I agree, let's just say though that life in the US over the last 30 years has been terribly good so let's not complain. IMO many have forgotten that lean years used to follow after a number of good years. Maybe now is the time.

The good thing is that all those who believe gold and other precious metals will help them preserve their wealth in the future can simply hedge their entire net worth accordingly. Those who believe otherwise don't. No need for going back to the gold standard as long as we have free-floating...

These computer driven trades rarely represent directional risk trades. Rather they represent arbitrage trades of different global petroleum markets geographically and across the futures curve or classical future vs. ETF arbitrage.

Inflation benefits all those families who are heavily in debt. The debt they owe will eventually become worthless and they can pay it back with pennies on the dollar in real terms. Those who owed money and were knee deep in debt in the Weimar republic made out like bandits as they paid back...

When Volcker started raising rates in the early 80s gold went from $500 to $800. The threat of rate hikes doesn't mean precious metals have to collapse simultaneously.

These stories of huge factories/hotels/department stores selling for a single ounce of gold are fairy tales at best. To my knowledge, there is no data of any such these fantastic transactions actually taking place. The inflation adjusted purchasing power of gold in the Weimar republic...

Looks like the ECB didn't learn much from their debacle in the Summer of 2008. Rinse and repeat.

I have to disagree. IB have hands down the best short availability I've seen in any other comparable broker. I've been shorting hundreds of mid/small cap names since years and rarely had problems.

Bernie Madoff would be proud of that equity curve.

The poster assumes there are tradable (exploitable) trends in random data. There aren't. Try it in Excel. Throw up 1000 random time series and devise a trading system that systematically makes money from the random data. Post your results.

Raj Rajaratnam.

In the last 18 months we could well have had a 30% bear market. Afterwards we could have attributed perfectly logical explanations and rationalizations as to why the market had to go down. But it didn't. Reasons will always be made up after the top/bottom.

I know first hand there are a number of wealthy people living on their yacht getting busted by tax authorities around the world every year. If you anchor in a certain jurisdiction for a little too long that jurisdiction may not accept whatever corporate shell structure you have setup for...

Quite shocking. Some people have no problem buying $75 high grade motor oil for their car but would never pay $20 for a bottle of high quality olive oil.

Prechter isn't trading, he's selling newsletters. Repeatedly calling for new bear market lows is more headline grabbing than predicting a boring, tight trading range.