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good post. that exactly reflects my thinking about BP floor value. I think that 30 is extremely cheap from the long term perspective. but could we see mid 20s? sure... note that at $60 BP had already some reputation problems priced in - so in a way that gives you additional "buffer".

good for you. and quite possible today. DO was trading up 1 buck after hours already so it has a nice start against SLB too...which would lose you huge yesterday. frankly these web trades are a bit of a nonsense. so far from reality - like where is the stop loss, what else defines the risk...

we certainly are on the same boat...

well that looks much better: http://www.cnbc.com/id/37578701

ok. the benefits of owning DO just got a touch bigger today. benefits in short: 1. DO will lose pile of money by missing on contracts already booked (force majeure). 2. it is costly to relocate rigs - and it is costly to leave them idle. 3. many rigs in less locations means less...

i think there are several of them and ET moderators try to delete their posts as soon as they happen- but of course these people are busybodies.... p.s. put them on ignore and you should not be getting email notifications...

watch out - this could go belly up... the management is completely incompetent, franchise is not diversified, finances are stretched, moratorium potentially longer than 6 month, etc. overpromise/underdeliver every quarter. in fact i am surprised this company still exist. many people were...

ok - we are getting nowhere here. your argument for deflation going forward is that debt is going to contract. obviously the opposite should hold as well so you present examples of inflation during the boom times when indebtedness grew rapidly as: 1. corn. ever heard about the ethanol...

i did not know i converse with a retard. if i did know that i would not bother. well lesson learned. and no - i am not suggesting shorting DO against BP (and definitely not suggesting shorting DO outright). see my original post (below). funny you feel it is necessary to defend your trade...

hey atticus you asshole....i hope you are from a trading desk so you can take it. i never suggested you should do any of those pairs - in fact i suggested just the opposite (read my posts). I said that if you must do a pair trade then SLB seems better. this is largely because it is closer...

you just proved my point. of course prices spike (rice, corn etc) - but as i mentioned previously this is an effect of supply/demand dynamics. it has nothing to do with debt. just to make sure - please note that I am EXPLICITLY in all my posts distinguishing between asset inflation and...

ok why not put something of my own too. i believe all of the above will be outperformed by HNR.

oh - and how was my statement about stat-arb misguided? you are here simply playing a massive event risk. i have no prob with that. but my tactic usually is when I play big risk I try to keep it simple, e.g. BP outright or options.

I see - so now it is 60 days - not 1 day. that sounds better to me. note that personally i do not think that neither of these pairs is a good value proposition. what i played in the past 2 weeks was integrateds, gassy stuff and international producing juniors far from gulf against...

ok - we disagree. that's what makes markets after all. but to argue with 1 day performance as proving your point is a bit childish.... on top of that there are so many better trades to be have that i really can't be bothered by DO/BP switch. (yup i realized the error but somehow ET...

atticus - i thought you are not the typical ET troll but maybe I was wrong. I was not giving a trade recommendation - rather commenting on a rational behind the trade. that said i just did look at the 1 month of data to make sure i am not really off the mark - and voila...

can you read? i said i agree with theory of endogenous money... but you are certainly clueless....re-read my previous post 10x and you will maybe get it. can you answer just a simple question like "why there was no inflation during the dramatic expansion of debt?" (because your argument is...

yeah sure - must be a lovely pair trade in such a volatility. on top of that there are plenty of possible scenarios where DO goes to hell while BP nicely chimes along... SLB is likely much better fit... p.s. btw stat-arb should have no business in this whatsoever. this is a structural change...

how comes? could you elaborate? otherwise it is just an empty statement...

this is one of the reasons why i doubt the deflation is a threat. chinese simply do not want to work for free for american leeches anymore... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3pcfGPJU6a0&pos=5