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  1. J

    New guys, now is not the time

    What stocks would you recommend that new traders play?
  2. J

    The market is random

    BINGO!!!!
  3. J

    New guys, now is not the time

    Wouldn't this market be ideal for fade strategies? Ultimately, the market is either trending or ranging. I agree trending markets and high volatility are opportunities for huge gains if your strategy is "trend following", whether it's on a minute, hourly or weekly chart. However, during times...
  4. J

    Shorting Leveraged ETFs

    Good point... I was considering this instead of the synthetic positions, because the short calls on the synthetics can be exercised if a temporary spike occurred. Any european style leveraged etf options with strong liquidity???
  5. J

    Shorting Leveraged ETFs

    how about synthetic longs for inverse (2x & 3x) etfs and synthetic shorts for long (2x & 3x) etfs...??? Although you're paying for the increased spread (bid/ask) with a synthetic and it has an expiration date, I guess it's better than a margin call or forced buy-in... Any thoughts... Walt
  6. J

    Shorting Leveraged ETFs

    It's terrible that they can be called in at any time. What's the benefit of shorting if you won't be given the opportunity to increase or hold your short positions through the drawdown? Is there anything that can be done to prevent them from being called at anytime? thanks, Walt
  7. J

    Shorting Leveraged ETFs

    no takers...???
  8. J

    Shorting Leveraged ETFs

    the daily rebalancing decay is the reason why I'd prefer to short the leveraged etfs in lieu of trading the inverse. As a matter of fact, I'm especially interested in shorting the inverse leveraged etfs... My main interest is something akin to shortable pairs trading of leveraged etfs. I've...
  9. J

    Shorting Leveraged ETFs

    Has anyone been able to borrow/short the shares of leveraged (2x or 3x) ETFs? The only downside I see with this strategy is that the market makes a strong move in the direction of the ETF. For example, bull 3x etfs would be dangerous to short if the market continued to spike without any...
  10. J

    Averaging Down with Option Hedge

    thanks for the feedback, Pocket. However, I don't understand some of your points. Are you willing to give an example? thanks, Walt
  11. J

    Averaging Down with Option Hedge

    Many folks contend that averaging down is a "time bomb waiting to explode", and I agree. For example, you could experience years of success with averaging down; however, it will only take a "one time" failure with averaging down to blow-up your account. This has been the case with several high...
  12. J

    Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.

    try a "modified or semi martingale" approach. If you're winning at least 45% of trades, then such an approach will turn a losing system into a winning system. The only drawback is when you get below the 45% threshold. Actually, there are modification that can allow a 40% win rate with equal...
  13. J

    Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.

    Whisky, Try averaging down while hedging with an option (gamma scalping). The only problem is the cost of the option. The problem is that a big move would be needed to offset the cost of the option. Perhaps the gamma scalping will help to pay for the cost fo the option. However, sometimes...
  14. J

    Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.

    Use the Kelly criterion... wait for 2 or 3 consecutive losing days (these are days when the coin toss was wrong about the market's direction). After 2 or 3 losing days, then start trading using the Kelly criterion with favorable r:r ratio (i.e. 1:3)
  15. J

    Personal note

    Mark (Option911), You stated that you prefer flys to the IC; however, today in your blog you mentioned that you advise your students to trade iron flys instead of traditional flys. This seems as a contradiction, unless the flys that you meant in the earlier post of this thread were Iron...
  16. J

    Personal note

    In the October edition of "Futures & Options Trader" magazine there's an article entitled "Testing A 'double-butterfly' System" on the SPX. The test was conducted by the folks at OptionVue for a 5 year period. There were 69 trades, with an 81% win record. It appears that many of the trades...
  17. J

    Personal note

    Mark, Are you serious... 5% - 10% per month??? I appreciate your optimism; however Dagnyt (Mark) stated that he gets about 25% - 30% per year on the GOOD years. This is such a wide disparity in earning perspective from two very experienced option traders, Mark (Option911) & Mark (Dagnyt)...
  18. J

    Are Iron Condors/Iron Butterflys really better than Short Straddles/Strangles?

    Upon modeling the ratio fotm wings, I'm conviced that a call and put BWB is my best bet... better (safer & high probability) than a short straddle/strangle or IC with FOTM ratio wings... Walt
  19. J

    Are Iron Condors/Iron Butterflys really better than Short Straddles/Strangles?

    Thanks for the contributions guys... Logically & theoretically, I would consider short straddles/strangles to be an unwise strategy. However, I can't help to be influenced by the fact that several individuals became quite wealthy with this strategy. Even the ones who lost fortunes...
  20. J

    Are Iron Condors/Iron Butterflys really better than Short Straddles/Strangles?

    thanks... I stand corrected. I wonder if IB ever had to obtain a deficiency judgement against a client because the margin liquidation was not enough to cover the losses...
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