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Guys, to cut to the chase, I know what delta is, et-certa. What I want to know is what is the mathematial diffeence between the probability of an option landing ITM (@ expiration) at a given moment and the delta at that same. Foe example, if the delta is 20; that means that roughly the chances...

Not clear. Are you saying yes it is imprecise (delta/ITM probability?

Are you saying that delta precisely (withn 1 percentage point) = probability of being ITM? It is not a rough estimate? (If it is a rough estimate and not precise, then how imprecise is my question.)

Delta is, I have been told, a rough estimate, of the probability of an option expiring in the money. My question is ... how rough? 1-2 percent? Percentage points? 5-10? Depends on how far OTM?

Long-term? Read the IMF piece in the Fin today, with a trade defecit of 7% of GDP and projected to go to 100% by 2020, no one in their right mind could be long the US dollar -- long term. Now short to intermediate-term is another matter, like 6 months, yeah, I can see that, unless the Fed starts...

Ok, good luck mate. I gotta tell you, having been burned so many times in futures, I am loath to do Forex, although I am tempted by extreme conditions from time to time; The GBP/US is getting there. I will go into the currency options market, however. Unfortunately, there isn't any liquidity in...

It will depend on how bad (or good) the trade numbers versus how likely (or unlikely) a rate hike. Keep in mind, too, that the former is more influential long term; the latter short-term. How bad or how likely to the trade numbers and the chances of a rate hike have to go in order to move the...

South Florida; we took a reassignment for two years, so I thought I might spend my time on trading, which had been more of a sidelight. (Former financial journo/PR/professor.)

Here for two years, unlikely it would be much longer. Wife took a job over here. I get to take two years off, maybe work on my trading (premium selling, mostly) or explore starting a small fund or something trading related. Should have a work visa in a couple weeks.

Wondering if there are any traders or anything here in town.

I saw this article a few weeks ago an wonder what sort of regulatory and paperwork hurdles an American citizen (with a tax resident work permit) would run into?

Yeah, cash currency options may make a comeback, and I already do currency futures options. I was wondering solely about options on currency ETFs, and if this was going to be a vry long wait because the underlying isn't a stock or stock index and thus there are competing regulatory bodies, or...

Anyone know if these are in the works or tied up in some regulatory jurisdictional red tape? Talking about optionson FXE, FEA, FXS, etc.

Surfing around on Interactive Brokers for AUD options, I see them listed on CME and Globex, but no bid/asks. Is this like RFQ only? Only trade on AU time?

At what level would you guys get short, short-term? And long-term where do you see the AUD for 07. I think it was up 8 percent in 2006 and some pros are calling for close to the same for 07. Again, I have a hard time seeing the dollar dropping another 8 percent over the year. Over hear, we...

I'm tempted to sell the futures at this point, but what do you Aussies think? Crack 80 first?

Excellent. Will check the liquidity, etc. Thanks for the tip.

Hence the need for options on futures. I use Interactive Brokers, which is about as good as a retail product as you can get. But there are no exchange-traded (eletronically) options on AUD/US futures that I am aware of, at least for US investors. I can RFQ, but I'm going to get a lousy price...

I've been in and out over the last two days and scalped a few hundred bucks, being long here and there, for a few hours. I'm new to the AUD/US futures contract and don't have electronic access to options on this one, so I can't hedge a long-only position, which I do unless I am of very firm...

Right, but why is the swissy different from othe others that are the most quoted. Most are GBP/US, EU/US. In news stories and in top curency trades, the Swissy is the only one traded in Swiss francs = $US.