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Nope. People gamble all the time despite their being no winning gambling strategy (besides cheating). Speculative front running is an attempt to (legally) cheat.

Speculators attempt to front run others, which is what I explained in my post.

You’re being fooled by randomness. Imbalance in supply/demand is what causes prices to move. Two types of price volatility exist: transient and permanent. Transient price volatility is mean reverting, permanent price volatility is part of a trend. What serves as the basis of a trend is buying...

CFDs are primarily a retail product. I have a prime broker account with IBKR and can tell you that the pickings are slim vs. full service prime brokers / investment banks.

IBKR doesn't have a swap desk

Reduce portfolio covariance. In other words, make sure your trades are not correlated with each other.

I think what's important to know about trading is that there is 1) idea generation and then there is 2) trade execution. Both can be sources of alpha. Good traders have robust idea generation that is tied to some market anomaly or source of alpha (note: chart patterns are not a source of alpha)...

Professional investors build strategies that derive returns from illiquidity or provisioning liquidity premia. These trades usually supplement a primary strategy (e.g. value or growth seeking). If you see an opportunity for a breakout to occur (thinly traded stock plus surge of readership) you...

Rather than read random websites and blogs, it’s best to go straight to the premier sources. Start with this: https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2002/october/inflation-factors-rise/ Then read this: https://www.piie.com/system/files/documents/wp15-19.pdf

@farmerjohn1324

Tie trades to catalysts Have multiple, non-correlated, trades in your book to reduce portfolio covariance Manage the size of the trade by conviction and expected return Other than that, there are no magic formulas or approaches to lock in gains. So just make sure that your rationale behind it...

It buys across treasuries, but it influences the short end the most. It also buys agency MBS’s. Anyway, I probably would spend more time understanding the drivers of currencies, rates, and central banks before I put a short dollar position on the book.

The CPI print itself is not forward looking. You should read ISM PMI reports to gauge how mfg and svcs firms are dealing with price pressures.

Repricing inflation expectations and improving economic performance (real yields). If rates were being suppressed, we would see the 10yr muuuuch lower. Expectation inflation is about 2-2.3% on average over the next few years. On a ten year basis inflation will probably average closer to 2%.

Uh, are you aware that the Fed just took down the SLR exemption and is verbally supporting higher rates? Do you even know what's going on in the bond market? :banghead:

So an important thing to understand is that central banks don’t set rates “across the curve” — they set the overnight rate. Some central banks engage in yield curve control where they hint at what level of rates they think make sense, but the Federal Reserve doesn’t do this. So while the Fed...

So I’d say M1 et al is less relevant for sovereign issues like the US, Euro, and Japanese. The reason why is that the debt these countries issue are in their own currency and they have very liquid markets. Currencies are driven primarily by interest rate differentials (which embed economic and...

I think you are focusing on one indicator (m1) without seeing the entire board. The US has the most dovish policy (Fed pinning rates and US fiscal impulse is high), but have you seen the US GDP growth outlook? Global PMI Tracker (bloomberg.com)

What you don't seem to understand is that the entire world is easing (dovish monetary policy). Compared to Europe, UK, Japan, etc., US rates are a bargain-- especially on an fx-adjusted basis.

Rotate out of tech and into consumer services, transportation, medical devices for optional procedures, etc...