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heehee... "this time it's different"

I hold a bit of gold, but since I had to convert my CAD to USD, I've basicaly realized absolutely ZERO gain, so I definitely feel your pain... You could always leverage your positions, or hedge your currency risk with forwards...

Not really, but i'm not too into TA...Yields in the long stuff is still only slightly over 5, and unless the Fed says they will LOWER rates, there is really a floor now there, therefore my opinion is that upside potential in notes will be limited, unless the Fed signals otherwise... On the...

Thanks... it's probably coz I drive a Honda (and love it)

Gross is always a macro player, he always differentiates between the cycles and secular... Having said that, I think asking the Fed to revive the economy, as he seems to be suggesting here, is micromanaging the situation and could well be dangerous... Cheap money is not the answer to GM's long...

I get it from the bloomberg terminal, type in MOVE (index) go If you don't have a subscription this won't make much sense... sorry to say i dunno if other charting services offer it...

I'm not exactly sure the technical definition, but safe to say it estimates how much movement the market expects of notes within the next few months.

Checked the MOVE index yesterday, ya, we are definitely down there again, looks like some slow steady grind ahead, with a few bumps along the way...

Still holding a bit of gold... although i'm starting to "regret" it since I coulda spent the money taking my pennies and melting them into nickles :D

I'm hoping i'm right about the steepning trend, I should be going further out, woulda made much more had I shorted the 30 instead of the 10, but waiting for a pullback before i get in again... 30 is above 5%, FINALLY!!

Nice, very nice... I guess the devil's in the details, picking the spot where we clear, and not chickening out when we start to move, keep holding for that entire retrace, a lot of money potential... thanks for that...

Hey Surdo, is this info available to the public? thanks

Quite the change from what he said a cople months ago, saying the Fed would stop at 4.50. However, I always respect those who are willing to change their mind when things start going against them.

My favorite was people closing brokerage accounts and "refinancing" savings accounts. A professional I know became successful just by starting a telephone service to quote Short-term note rates at any given clip...

The end is never pretty, it ends with blood in the streets... It's a little wacky, but who woulda thought in the eighties we'd see the long bond yields eventually in the single digits, let alone below 5%... now THAT's crazy...

Do you think we could ever be back in the heady days of the 80s, with short term rates in the teens?

I think we will go normalized, seems as though size has been pushed through to keep it flatter, but as the inevitable thoughts of a hawkish fed are realized, neither Asia or slowing housing will stop it. Is it a secular steepening? I don't think we're quite there yet...

You mean they want it both ways? Not buying bonds in such size and profiting from the lack of demand they would historically create by betting down.

I agree, assuming 20% p.a, making 4 million on a 20 million dollar fund doesn't sound all that exciting, sorry to say, 20 million doesn't go that far anymore...

A good one for today!! The Fed raised, but that was a forgone conclusion, the key was the language within the text. SOOO, there was a little lag time between announcement and the market reaction. If you can read fast, and I mean speed read and digest quickly, you may have been able to beat most...