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Ya, hardly a good risk/reward ratio for ten beeps, however, with everybody sooo short...

Thanks Steve for the blog, and of course the ongoing analysis... Ya, the long end sure is expensive, and I completely agree that given the risks of inflation you're not getting much bang for the buck... The market is trying to balance inflation risk with a longer term (2nd half) outlook for...

Well, throw out the ADP report, somebody's getting fired... We're approaching 5.10, I wonder how many are gonna jump in for another test of 5%...

Or, you could take delivery on the BUY and use that to cover your short... Granted, shipping a gold bar from India would be expensive... The big question when arbing is not so much trade price, but the spread between bid and ask... I assume India markets, because of their lack of liquidity...

What's with this 50bps talk??? I can't believe it's actually being slightly priced in... crazy...

I hate how "the bond market's got it wrong" lately, there really seems to be no concensus the one day to the next... There wasn't a follow through on the push higher, and that was telling... Shoulda taken profit when I had the chance... Waay too much anticipation for that CPI number...

Definitely not being well compensated holding the long stuff that's for sure...

I'm happy with my position, for now... I think resistence to 110 will be heavy, and it may take a blow off top on little volume to make it happen. Either way, bonds are finally starting to act as they used to: Stocks go down --> Bonds go up... Ah yes, remember that correlation? We've had a...

You're very optimistic :)

Ya, it'd be hard to stop a moving truck if it gets there... On the other hand, if the fed signals another rate hike we're 75 basis points negative and CPI inches higher, the fundamentals start kicking in...

Longer term are you a bond bull or bear??

Ya I heard some guys sold risk in the pits today... Do you think volatility will settle in the equities markets soon too?

Finally got a bounce in the dollar index Steve, blew past the 85 handle...

True, but doesn't look like they're gonna be shutting off the supply any time soon... auctions coming up again soon, which have been dismal as of late, let's see the bid to cover...

EXACTLY... I think BB is still clearly leaning at a hike, mostly to save face from that disaster with Bartoromo (sp)... Whether he will be the reason the curve goes inverted I don't particularly think he cares, coz he can always spin it back to Asian demand, as did he predecessor... The...

Equities sold off heavy today, anybody think there may be some rebalancing into bonds? Treasuriies seemed to shrug off the news, the declines weren't nearly as bad...

With Europe and Japan central banks hinting at future tightening, matters just get more muddled and complicated as to where US bonds should be headed... I'm always sceptical of Jpn, is this finally the time when they break outta their decade long slump...

Ya, apparently the Fed gauges invertedness between the FF and 10s, so we're pretty inverted using the June implied rate... The TUT spread is still about 8 basis points positive, but that's coz even the 2 year is joining the ride, that will of course change if inflation numbers come in high...

Exactly! and it's been a struggle I think for the Fed to slow the economy down while juggling inflation. The long end has been conflicted as of late because of this. And what's worse is they can't get their message straight, damned if they do, damned if they don't. If they raise, they'll push...

Thanks for the background, definitely a questionable day in terms of who knew what and when... I hate this bouncing off the 5% mark, I've always believed barriers are meant to be broken, not bounced off of, it always reminds me of Red-Rover-Red-Rover...