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  1. ScroogeMcDuck

    Grayscale Holds Over 3% of Bitcoin, Sees Pension-Fund Interest

    Also, why would it even be legal for GBTC to issue new shares so far below market price?
  2. ScroogeMcDuck

    Grayscale Holds Over 3% of Bitcoin, Sees Pension-Fund Interest

    Where do I sign up to get GBTC for no premium and then immediately flip it for 30%?
  3. ScroogeMcDuck

    Grayscale Holds Over 3% of Bitcoin, Sees Pension-Fund Interest

    I'd be reluctant to buy GBTC at a 33% premium to nav. They need to issue more shares and buy more coins. Meanwhile the futures have 15% annualized contango because people are so desperate to get bitcoin exposure while the SEC is still dragging its feet on approving a real bitcoin ETF. Holding...
  4. ScroogeMcDuck

    Generic Alert

    is it possible to set up a generic alert for whenever any stock listed on any of my pages in TWS moves more than 20% either way in an hour?
  5. ScroogeMcDuck

    TWS option chain updates "impl bid vol" and "impl ask vol" slowly and incorrectly

    TWS is great the way it is except for a few little bugs like this.
  6. ScroogeMcDuck

    TWS option chain updates "impl bid vol" and "impl ask vol" slowly and incorrectly

    See screenshot. The 7 put bid was 0.4, and I put in a big bid at 0.5, and the impl bid vol took a minute or two to change, and I still doubt it's correct because it only went from 97 to 102 while the ask is still 0.55 and its ivol went from 112 to 117. Using the real time price feeds it'd be...
  7. ScroogeMcDuck

    Short MVIS

    Retails are chasing these unprofitable story stocks at insane multiples. The whole EV sector is basically a bubble driven by envy of Tesla. Too late to buy tesla? Buy this small cap pump and dump that also claims it will start making EVs. Meanwhile actually profitable companies with 20-30%...
  8. ScroogeMcDuck

    Short MVIS

    Up 50x on a series of bogus buyout rumors and LIDAR hype. Nearly bankrupt, must dilute to survive. Finding a buyout is impossible when retails are pumping the stock this much. Hindenburg made a good twitter thread about it today. They took the same old laser scanning tech they've been failing...
  9. ScroogeMcDuck

    How to earn 21% risk free on USD

    https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w10268/w10268.pdf
  10. ScroogeMcDuck

    How to earn 21% risk free on USD

    So you like paying the 2%/year inflation tax and subjecting your money to the whims of corporations and governments, and not being able to do business on weekends. Silk road got fucked because their security protocols were extremely amateurish. The founder was logging in from a public wifi...
  11. ScroogeMcDuck

    How to earn 21% risk free on USD

    Those fears of deflation are debunked with theory and three centuries of historical analysis in Tom Woods' book about the housing bust (Meltdown). The great depression is hugely misunderstood by Keynesians (who happen to be really quiet about all the prior depressions that didn't fit their...
  12. ScroogeMcDuck

    How to earn 21% risk free on USD

    There is no physical fixed supply currency. Gold and silver experienced massive fluctuations in physical supply, such as when Spain found 150,000 tons of silver in the new world, which caused massive inflation. And even later on when the entire world was explored and the supply of physical...
  13. ScroogeMcDuck

    How to earn 21% risk free on USD

    Unless you're holding cash under your mattress, you need a bank to custody your USD. This is not true of bitcoin. For a long time now, FDIC insured deposits of USD have earned much less than inflation (partly because of the banks' overhead costs, partly because of anticompetitive government...
  14. ScroogeMcDuck

    How to earn 21% risk free on USD

    Re power consumption, most bitcoin mining occurs in places where hydro power is abundant relative to population so the prices are under a 5 cents per kwh. Most traditional banking activity occurs in big cities during peak hours so they have to use fossil fuels or nuclear. And most of those...
  15. ScroogeMcDuck

    How to earn 21% risk free on USD

    Correct, it's better to just hodl spot bitcoin. USD is a riskier asset with the fed expanding its supply by 35% in a year.
  16. ScroogeMcDuck

    How to earn 21% risk free on USD

    Step 1: convert it to spot bitcoin Step 2: convince the CME to let you use the bitcoin as collateral against short bitcoin futures Step 3. short February bitcoin futures
  17. ScroogeMcDuck

    charting the past implied volatility of an option?

    can TWS do that?
  18. ScroogeMcDuck

    TWS feature request: days held column

    I'd like a column in TWS that shows how many days since the last time I added to a position. This would make tax planning more convenient.
  19. ScroogeMcDuck

    excessive initial margin on HTZGQ

    I have lots of other options with bigger spreads and higher IV yet much lower margin requirements than those. In almost all cases the initial margin is a low double digit percentage higher than the maintenance margin. The exceptions are HTZGQ+HYLN+NKLA, where the initial margin is 4x the...
  20. ScroogeMcDuck

    excessive initial margin on HTZGQ

    My HTZGQ bear put spread's initial margin requirement is more than double the maximum possible loss from it: Meanwhile my short calls are charging me about 4x the price of the underlying. So when the underlying is $2.2, and I'm short Jan2022 calls at a strike of 1.5, the initial margin is...
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