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Due to some personal issues, I had suspended trading for the last few weeks. I've returned with slightly new entries and exits.

Can't log in to OANDA at the location I'm at... will update with recent numbers ASAP.

December 23, 2005 Account Balance: $99,980 Unrealized P&L: $234 Net Asset Value: $100,214 Leverage: 0.72 USD/CHF: Long 1 unit. USD/JPY: Long 1 unit. It's effectively a weekend in terms of spread and trading activity at OANDA.

December 22, 2005 Account Balance: $99,966 Unrealized P&L: $328 Net Asset Value: $100,294 Leverage: 0.72 USD/CHF: Long 1 unit. USD/JPY: Long 1 unit.

December 21, 2005 Account Balance: $100,260 Unrealized P&L: $640 Net Asset Value: $100,900 Leverage: 1.27 GBP/CHF: Long 1 unit. USD/CHF: Long 1 unit. USD/JPY: Long 1 unit. Bit late on an update today... I won't go into why, but suffice to say that: If ANYONE knows of a decent 2...

December 20, 2005 Account Balance: $100,240 Unrealized P&L: $460 Net Asset Value: $100,700 Leverage: 1.28 GBP/CHF: Long 1 unit. USD/CHF: Long 1 unit. USD/JPY: Long 1 unit.

December 19, 2005 Account Balance: $100,542 Unrealized P&L: -$260 Net Asset Value: $100,282 Leverage: 0.98 NZD/USD: Long 1 unit. Underwater on NZD/USD. The system is currently quite defensive due to the drastic declines in JPY short pairs. In unrelated news, I'm done exams...

December 16, 2005 Account Balance: $100,516 Unrealized P&L: $0 Net Asset Value: $100,516 Leverage: 0.00 Nothing to say with no positions on.

Paper you may be interested in... http://www.business.uiuc.edu/poteshma/WorkingPapers/NiPearsonPoteshman.Jan2005.pdf Abstract: This paper presents striking evidence that option trading changes the prices of underlying stocks. In particular, we show that on expiration dates the closing...

December 15, 2005 Account Balance: $100,508 Unrealized P&L: $0 Net Asset Value: $100,508 Leverage: 0.00 I'm out! Completely! Bit frustrating, but it's better than losing more money. Most of the carry pairs took a hit this week.

December 14, 2005 Account Balance: $100,808 Unrealized P&L: $62 Net Asset Value: $100,870 Leverage: 0.36 NZD/USD: Long 1 unit. The long awaited day of JPY reckoning came - and it wasn't pretty. Got away with a ~3% loss on a multihundred pip drop in multiple pairs though... I...

December 12, 2005 Account Balance: $98,068 Unrealized P&L: $5,814 Net Asset Value: $103,830 Leverage: 4.25 AUD/JPY: Long 3 units. GBP/JPY: Long 3 units. GBP/CHF: Long 2 units. NZD/USD: Long 1 unit. Nothing too spectacular. AUD/JPY is currently coiling its way down, we'll have to...

December 12, 2005 Account Balance: $98,010 Unrealized P&L: $6,332 Net Asset Value: $104,343 Leverage: 4.25 AUD/JPY: Long 3 units. GBP/JPY: Long 3 units. GBP/CHF: Long 2 units. NZD/USD: Long 1 unit. I'm confused as to what margin % refers to - from now on I'll report leverage as...

December 9, 2005 Account Balance: $98,460 Unrealized P&L: $5,622 Net Asset Value: $104,082 Margin %: 41% AUD/JPY: Long 2 units. GBP/JPY: Long 2 units. GBP/CHF: Long 1 unit. Nothing too spectacular today - going into the weekend with a nice carry boost.

For the initial question, I would certainly risk it. 50/50 chance of getting 32,000 or 125,000 = expectancy of 78.5 > 64.

Currently with 5 units I have 88% of my margin available and my margin percent is 40% (at 20:1, default OANDA). I'm not entirely sure what these mean, I'm off to look them up. I'm currently guessing that margin available is (NAV - (position value/20)) and margin percent is (position value /...

December 8, 2005 Account Balance: $98,460 Unrealized P&L: $4,900 Net Asset Value: $103,360 AUD/JPY: Long 2 units. GBP/JPY: Long 2 units. GBP/CHF: Long 1 unit. AUD/JPY looks to be running out of steam... 2 units hit the upper stop. The long awaited JPY bull run in the cards? fader...

Almost forgot - In terms of backtesting, long term I've run this through Excel and obtained good results but it's a crude approximation. I don't have the data or tools to get certain things, like the magnitude of the stops or carry boost/drag right. Starving student - I'm not about to go out...

Perhaps I'm using the wrong terminology - a whipsaw to me is something that just barely took out my stop, or hit my stop in an extremely sudden manner. Should I be using something different? I'll describe my basic strategy using one pair. A unit (U1) is added with a volatility based stop (S1)...

December 7, 2005 Account Balance: $98,124 Unrealized P&L: $5,734 Net Asset Value: $103,858 AUD/JPY: Long 4 units. CAD/JPY: Long 1 unit. GBP/CHF: Long 1 unit. GBP/JPY: Long 2 units. Overextended, eh? Whipsawed out on EUR/AUD and USD/JPY. Got stopped out at ~.71 when NZD/USD went to...