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Rolled over -- long Dec at 1243.40 and short March at 1238.55

Dec. 16, 2010 Analysis: Today's economic statistics continued the recent upbeat trend, and the market rose as a result. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the market will trade on technical signals, as the cross current of economic news from the US and Europe will continue the tug of war between...

Nine_Ender, You stated, ¡°I also don't think you understand the nature of speculative short term investment.¡± I can neither agree nor disagree with your statement because you have not laid out your understanding of the ¡°nature of speculative short term investment.¡± You stated...

Nine_Ender, You stated, ¡°the stock market is also pricing in increasing earnings in 2011.¡± I disagree. If this were true, the market would have little room to rise in 2011 unless corporate earnings reports in 2011 would consistently beat earnings forecasts made in 2010. You stated...

Dec. 15, 2010 Analysis: Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the Empire State Manufacturing Survey will be positive to the market, but the market will retreat on concerns about the impact of higher long-term interest rates." Today the better-than-expected Empire State Manufacturing...

Dec. 14, 2010 Analysis: Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "once the market rises to as high as 1,245, it will drop." Today the market rose above 1,245 but finished only slightly higher. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey will be positive to the market, but...

Dec. 13, 2010 Analysis: China did not raise interest rates as widely expected, and global equity markets rallied -- except the S&P 500 Index, which gave up all its gain at the end of the session. Looking ahead to tomorrow, Retail Sales and Business Inventories for Nov. will both exceed...

Nine_Ender, You indicated that I have failed to indicate why the S&P is at 1,240. I never predicted that the S&P would rise to 1,240, which is the reason why I gave no analysis to support the S&P¡¯s rise to 1,240. You brought up a massive correction in commodity prices as a reason for...

Nine_Ender, Thank you for accepting my invitation for a critique. You stated, "if China doesn't raise interest rates, you'll see a huge rally on Monday or Tuesday." I disagree. I believe that even if China does not raise interest rates, the 5.1% inflation rate in November will induce a...

Dec. 10, 2010 Analysis: Today's market action made yesterday's Analysis look more like the writer was talking about his own book than he was making an objective analysis. Looking ahead to Monday, now that China's November inflation rate was 5.1%, China will raise its benchmark interest...

Nine_Ender, It would make sense that I present my side of the reasoning for entering one side of a trade, and you are welcome to respond with your reasoning why such a trade is wrong and should be offset. That would fit the reason for my starting this thread. Thanks. Dr. Chen

EliteThink, Here are the underlying reasons for staying short: China's November inflation rate to be released is at least 4.7%; China will raise its interest rate over the weekend; Moody & Poor will both lower Irish banks' debt ratings after Fitch's downgrade this week. Here is a factor...

EliteThink, Thank you for your encouraging words. A trader has to hold firm his conviction in order to profit from his trade. The most challenging aspect of trading, however, is to reverse one's conviction at the first hint that he is wrong rather than keep finding reasons to justify his...

Dec. 9, 2010 Analysis: Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the market will trade in a range as its breakaway from 1,228 is checked by lingering concerns about European economic strength and China's imminent tightening of monetary policy." Today the market traded in an eight-point range...

Mark, Thank you for your comment. In a day when no economic news occurs, I will consider the "EIA Petroleum Status Report" as a market-moving event in the future. Dr. Chen

Dec. 8, 2010 Analysis: Today the market dropped only to 1,219 before bouncing back to finish higher with no market-driving news. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Initial Jobless Claims will hover around 430,000. The market will trade in a range as its breakaway from 1,228 is checked by...

Dec. 7, 2010 Analysis: Today the market exhibited the classic pattern of a short-term top, as it opened higher and stayed elevated throughout the day, but only to close flat. Commodity markets do not bode well for the Bulls, either. Crude oil failed to break the key $90 resistance, while...

Dec. 6, 2010 Analysis: Friday's Analysis predicted that there will be "little room for further weakening of the dollar." Today the Euro weakened against the dollar, driving down the market to finish slightly lower. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the market will again focus on Europe's debt...

Dec. 3, 2010 Analysis: Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "not all Bears have thrown in the towel, leaving an additional room for the market to rally." Today the market initially dropped after an extremely disappointing payroll increase for Nov., but once the market limited its loss...

The market will certainly drop towards 1,200 before Dec. 15. The question is whether you can still hold your position if the market rises above 1,228 before it drops back to 1,200 by Dec. 15. Dr. Chen