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You have a bunch of D-list bucket shops ... and then, DE Shaw - a solid top tier buy side firm.... You need to seriously reconsider your move to "prop". Unlike 99% of the people here, you went to a good school and have a decent background.... joining prop and you'll be throwing away any...

Do you have a point of sort? So long as the quotes used for valuation was actionable at that time, who cares what the motivation for those quotes are? isn't that the very definition of a market? And if it isn't and it's fraudulent, then it's a matter of fraud having little to do with the otc...

Just because the public at large can't see it doesn't mean these marks aren't at all transparant. There are numerous circulations of live bid/offers for various OTC products. There are also various calculation agents and trustees in charge of aggregating these quotes from multiple sources for...

Yes. I explicitly considered the fact that the host knows the truth and made a decision based on it. It's what the "conditional" part. As for a decision tree, I don't think that's the right way to go. In a sense, I'm not making a decision based on what the decision I made. Instead, I'm...

I see where you are going wrong. You have correctly computed the unconditional probability of these events. What you are missing is that when you are at the switch/no switch point, you need to figure out your conditional probability. By this, I mean you need to figure out the probability of the...

I'm not trying to be rude, but will you write out the four branches in words? I'm having a hard time following what you are doing - with the spacing at all. I do want to try to give you a valid reply once I figure out what you are doing.

Stop. I have an advanced degree in a field that makes ample use of game theory and statistics (to establish that I do, in fact, know what I'm talking about). This problem is well settled in both. It's not an opinion answer, but a mathmatical one. The monte hall problem is a simple construction...

Don't be silly. The monte hall problem is a classic illustration of Bayesian reasoning: the idea that you start with a belief about something. Then you observe something. You then figure out how likely you are to see what you observed given your belief. Finally, you update your belief. It is...

The has been an interesting thread. We've established that certain individuals (1) Have no understanding of conditional probabilities (2) Cannot distinguish between probabilities and expectations. (3) No idea what statistics is. (4) No idea what trading is. (5) No concept of analytical...

I believe it. I've conducted some truely unbelieveable interviews. Those guys either lied on their resume or.... well.... they looked good on paper and somehow did a decent job on the phone screens. The funny thing is, if he simply gave the wrong answer as if he has never heard of the problem...

No. Afraid you don't make any sense. The Monty Hall problem is well established. It always pays to switch. it's not a statistical argument - it's one that, if you subscribe to the same basic axioms of logic that everyone else in the reasonable universe do, then you should come to the same...

You want to trade for an investment bank.... and you transfered to a community college? You are done. Not in the sense that the trade is done, but that you now face the same exact chance of getting into investment bank front office as that of a street begger... still not impossible though: eddy...

Yeah - mortgage sales and fixed income sales aren't anywhere close to each other. FI sales deal with institutional clients (ie, hedge funds and asset managers). There's almost nothing in common between the two except some vague sense of being "sales".

This part sounds right. fixed income salesmen aren't idiots. While I'm not entirely sure how accurate this work with client to "create" a solution is, but they do present trades/strategies/ideas to clients all the time. Clients also ask for market colors, etc. This is funny. Phone work is...

Fixed income pure cash sales is a dying business to some degree. But, the smart salesmen have retooled themselves to sell credit derivatives along with cash products. Those guys do well. The general income is not from prospecting, but from servicing existing clients. Since there is no exchange...

Hey BnB, if you are doing so well, you wouldn't mind holding an event to promote your site in NYC would you? Rent out a club for an evening, drinks, etc? It'll certainly shut all of us up.

Anywhere from 3 hours to a few days to a week and half (normal) to a few weeks (not abnormal), to, of course, never. Usually, job site/headhunter/others -> hiring manager. That's it. The hiring manager will decide whether to bring you in or not. He might have his superior/peers interview you...

Oh. Okay. Yeah, you can obviously replicate a variance swap (in theory) on your own with a bundle of options. But I wonder whether bid/offer spread + transaction cost might make it infeasible for small trade sizes. I don't know. Maybe.

Chances are he can't trade variance swaps. They are OTC. That being said, 60-70% accurate is a warning sign. You need to perform a binomial validation to make sure that your "accuracy" can't simply be accepted as a random realization of 50/50 probability because of small sample distortions...

There are risk quants. They analyze risk. It's anything but simple. There are quant developers - they build pricing and analytical tools. And there are trading quants; a trading quant either trades a quant system or is just a trader (or, more precisely, a portfolio manager) who uses quantitative...