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update since the Dow hit another 52-wk intraday low: Date Dow Intrdy Low NYSE 52Wk Lows 9/18/2009 10404 1108 9/29/2008 10267 1170 10/10/2008 7774 2901 11/21/2008 7392 1527 2/20/2009 7249 555 2/23/2009 7106...

777, that's the point. If there were 1500 or 2000 new lows today it would mean everything was crashing. But there was much less. So everything wasn't crashing. It isn't predictive, it just tells you what happened. There nothing that says the market can't hit new 52 week lows next month...

update since the Dow hit another 52-wk intraday low: Date Dow Intrdy Low NYSE 52Wk Lows 9/18/2009 10404 1108 9/29/2008 10267 1170 10/10/2008 7774 2901 11/21/2008 7392 1527 2/20/2009 7249 555 2/23/2009 7106...

Date Dow Intrdy Low NYSE 52Wk Lows 9/18/2009 10404 1108 9/29/2008 10267 1170 10/10/2008 7774 2901 11/21/2008 7392 1527 2/20/2009 7249 555

Okay I'm not fooling around with this trade any more, just got out. Overall it worked out really well. Volume is really really high today and the price came back up. To me that means snapping up shares at bargain prices. Best to take profits and move on. I will post a big picture update...

Now that we have hit new lows, I am trailing a pretty tight stop on DXD. Don't want to lose a lot on an upwards whip-lash.

AMT can you school us up some more on your price/volume concepts? Got any charts?

http://www.nraila.org/Legislation/Federal/Read.aspx?id=4329 Step 1: Get them registered Step 2: Take them away

Simple statements about price and volume relationships are almost always wrong. The relationships are not 1 to 1; a low-volume decline may mean something completely different from one week to the next, depending on the context. One of the most common misconceptions about price and volume is...

Looks to me like an obvious setup that comes along once in a while, for an intermediate term short. I'll try to sell my DXD around 100, but I'll take what I can get if we hit new lows on the Dow; on the risk side I guesstimate 25% if the tops and bottoms in the p/c ratio and new h/l don't hold...

Here's the put/call ratio which we have not discussed yet, but is another source of data discussed by Mamis and others.

Here's the highs/lows:

I noticed something unusual in the H/L & price charts the last few days, which led me to pick up a new intermediate short position (30-90 days, long DXD which is a short Dow 2X ETF, in at 56.79). More later, just wanted to log the trade for now.

Definitely, the market has changed. With my mid-long term trading, I just closed a big short position today.

3 mo chart update

Here is a weakness. You need hard rules. Easiest to start with just inputting a direction associated with each S/R level (trade bounce or breakout).

Excellent. You will need to estimate the probabilities by giving yourself a blind test-- identifying S/R levels then scrolling the chart to the right and see how things would work out. Once you estimate these probabilities you can determine what size to trade based on account $. Keep...

Still short. The highs/lows ratio is better than in October, with price is mostly lower; that's a kind of divergence. However, I interpret that in the current setting as "we've gone from abysmal to pathetic". (Mostly because of the absolute value of the ratio, still below 0.10).

3 month chart update

Here's my analysis (1) Completely different situation than 2002. Far more stocks got hammered this time. (2) Price is king-- trend is still quite clearly down. (3) Ratio of stocks making new lows to highs was not as overpowering in Dec as it was in October; however, lows still beat...