Unless we enter some bizarre zimbabwe style inflation (also requiring 30yr to crash) the chances of a 100 handle rally are effectively zero. BUT on the other hand, the onslaught of covered writers on any rally will crush vix/vxv.
I'm guessing it did, but not anywhere as much as it is up in profits now. On the contrary, nitro's theta bleeding long calls are unlikely profitable at this point.
The market has a way of making the largest group of short term traders feel the worst. Short term positions could not possibly be long unless you have a stomach of concrete and balls of steel. My bet is on late day melt up.
Or you could have the idea that everyone has already pitched their crap they dont want and there are no sellers left. Then the machines run the mkt up 3% in the last hour to make everyone that sold feel like crap for the next 3 days.