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BTW, what has changed in USDCAD fundamentals since February? National economies are big ships, they take a long time to turn around. A 9% fundamental change in our economic relations in 3 months? I don't think so. As to pundits, I recall that last year RBC announced a revised model that...

Disagree that gold is a monetary instrument any more. It's a commodity, pure and simple, & is inflated like all metals & oil. Economist thinks Yen is the most underpriced currency on the market in terms of purchasing power - USDJPY & AUDJPY held up by carry trade & nothing else. Some pundits...

Ivanovich, eto byla shutka. Today, the US, tomorrow the world? Wasn't it Laurier who said "The twentieth century will belong to Canada"? He may have been off by a century. No, like all market trends, the rising loonie will self-correct eventually. It's not rooted in US-Canadian trade...

And the pundits are now finding all kinds of reasons for it, of course. Seems it's rational after all - not just kids throwing spaghetti. Dodge talking about upping rates some more. Apparently not concerned about effects of high loonie on exports points out that loonie has been dropping for...

Personally I've been riding GBPCAD down, it dropped 250 pips today, expect it to go to 2.02. Took my profit, now waiting for it to get close to resistance at about 2.1400 before I short it again. Also longed USDJPY at 121.59, shorted at 121.78, longed again at 121.59, target 121.80: the...

Yes I agree. But the economy is booming and Dodge is a hawk on inflation, so there's an outside chance. Also an outside chance the Fed will get concerned about housing and possible recession and drop it a quarter. Oil is off its recent high ($67) and down to $64, but that's not enough either...

Didn't I say? Cheap loonies, Alcoa can bids for Alcan. Cheap dollars, Alcan goes for Alcoa. It's a yo-yo. I look for USDCAN to go to maybe 1.06 on momentum. 1.04 if Dodge raises rates (which I don;t think he will). Then when the effects percolate through the economy and we start generating...

On rates: 8 years of double-deficit policies have painted the Fed into a corner. They can't raise rates, or it will do more damage to the housing market, which will spread and maybe cause a recession. They also can't lower rates, since inflation is still well over target. So they will stand...

Zonetrooper, you're quite right, stops make you vulnerable to stop hunters. The technique is simple: say I have a billion Euros. I dump them on the market, pushing the price down and triggering stops, which pushes the price down further. Then I gradually buy my Euros back in blocks of 10 mil...

OK, you're crazy. Not all of us play in your leagues: my trading capital is around $20k and I do it as a sideline. I may soon come into $300k or so and be able to play on a bigger scale. However, my trading method (when I remember to stick to it) brings me about $200 a day, enough to pay the...

BTW, EURCAD is also on a very nice downtrend, and without the signs of strength that GBPCAD is showing. I may switch over, but have to understand the fundamentals first. As to dropping a bundle by playing without stops, I don't say I never sell at a loss, just that I'd rather make that...

Yes, USDCAD is clearly still trending down. In the meantime, GBPUSD is also at the moment near the top of a downward channel. That's why I shorted the GBPCAD cross. I don't like to play trends alone, however: I want fundamentals backing me up. The USDCAD downtrend is bound to be...

Why i don't like stops and try to find other ways to manage risk: stops are a great way to make sure you're always buying at the top and selling at the bottom. Violating my own principles, I got nervous about my GBPCAD position (I was short at 2.1511) and put in a stop at 1530 before I went...

Yes, yes. China is growing like gangbusters. 10% a year is terrific, 11% is astounding. 40% (oil and other resources) is a bubble. Rapid growth is also relatively easy when you start from a low base. When the Chinese economy matures, its growth rate will slow down to 2-4% a year, like all...

Bulls can always cite one-sided evidence, but nothing in the real world grows sustainably at 40% a year. The demand for oil isn't increasing at that rate, the supply of oil isn't declining at that rate, and the rate at which we pump it has nothing to do with the size of reserves anyway - not...

I gave my theory, for what it was worth. Low loonie -> lots of M&A, manufacturing exorts go up, high dollar mitigates drop in resource prices, everybody's happy, everybody propers, the economic data look great. Result: everyone starts buying loonies. Result: loonie goes up, up, up, especially...

There is no herd mentality. Herds don't have a mind.

Today's Globe was speculating on a possible reverse takeover.

There's talk of a reverse bid now - Alcan buying Alcoa. Having penetrated a 30-year support line, USDCAD is in terra incognita - "here there be dragons". Nobody knows how low it will go, or why it is where it is. Way more longs than shorts now, though, so the betting is on recovery...

Ivanovich, if the weather forecast says it's going to be sunny, and you have a picnic, and it rains, does that mean the weather is irrational? Or that the forecaster needs to improve his model? Currency trading is still mainly done by big, institutional players who employ professional traders...