Search results

10 year Treasuries are a lot more volatile than 30 year mortgages. Take a look at this data: http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm Your examples were 20 to 25% moves in 30 year mortgage rates. Between 1979 and 1981, mortgage rates did increase by up to 60% over two years. Martin

Actually, it's not important. It's a completely useless and deceptive statistic for an individual investor unless they are fortunate enough to own a geographically diversified portfolio of houses. I'm pretty certain there hasn't been a 45% increase in mortgage rates over a two year period in...

Yeah... it's called a laptop. Stephen's right. A true wireless LCD is simply not possible with current technology. The Viewsonic product is a thin client. Martin

If housing prices decline by only 10% while mortgage rates rise 250bp, that's not a bubble bursting. That's a rational market. A correction of 30% or more would suggest that there was a speculative bubble. Martin

Serge, do you believe you have better short availability than Interactive Brokers? They publish their list daily so it shouldn't be hard for you to tell. Thanks, Martin

Zeb, that's Interactive Brokers' list, not E*Trade's. However I'd be very suprised if you could short something at IB but couldn't short it at E*Trade. The converse is true routinely, that stocks which are not shortable at IB are shortable at E*Trade (and BrownCo, and Ameritrade). Martin

Is there a public source for this data? I'm curious about this statistic. Martin

Genesis is self clearing and I'm very skeptical that they have a good short list. You're probably just shorting easy to borrow stuff. For example, can you short anything that's not on Interactive Broker's short list...

There's already a thread on this topic over in the retail brokers forum. You've already got the bet short list you're going to find. I've tried lots and lots of brokers and I make my hard to borrow shorts at ETrade. Reg SHO has made short availability much worse than it was in 2004. Martin

That's exactly why the VIX futures don't track the VIX. Mean reversion of volatility is strong and the contract is hard to replicate so nobody's going to take the other side. At least that's the way I see it. Martin

E*Trade. Seriously. Martin

From the Motley Fool thread: http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=22442380 Martin

BrownCo lied. They originally claimed that their change in policy was forced by a recent change in SEC interpretation of Reg T. There was no such change. BrownCo chose to implement a rule that was stricter than Reg T, blamed the SEC for the change, and later admitted that it was strictly an...

The actual Reg T rules for cash accounts are relatively subtle. They prohibit buying, selling, and then buying again using the same funds before the original purchase has settled. The sale does not have to settle before the funds can be used. You can buy and sell on the same day, then use those...

Hey Guys... calm down. This is just a new BrownCo regulation on cash accounts. It does not apply to margin accounts. It has nothing to do with the SEC. BrownCo lied, blaming the SEC for their own internal policy decision. When pressed they will own up to their "mistake."...

So you do agree that there is a bubble, but you think it still has room to run? An entire market went up 41% in one year? And this is a sign of health? Are you listening to yourself? Martin

Then you weren't paying very much attention. In 1973 Burt Malkiel wrote the following in A Random Walk Down Wall Street: There's nothing new under the sun. Martin

You know what SteveD ... you're right. I was acting as if investors and single family homeowners participate in the same real estate market. But that's dumb, obviously they pay a completely different price for the same property. That's why you see all those ads in the paper, "3 br house for sale...

In the short term, I don't agree with the assumption either. This is a financial model, not a crystal ball. It's an assumption, not a prediction. In the long term, there is no historical or theoretical reason to believe that either real estate price appreciation or rent appreciation will...

OldTrader, Thanks for the comments. I don't really find much in your comments that I disagree with, but that's fine. We don't always have to disagree. :) For many Americans having a home as a forced savings plan is the only way they will save at all. For them, that is indeed a good...