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"Is it possible for him to make a living with a 30K account?" The above was the question. Almost anything is possible but IMHO, this is not enough money. I couldn't put a number on it but I would say that the probability of losing the 30K is much greater than the probability of his making a...

My calculator is accurate to the 8th decimal. :eek: Your observation is correct IMO and is probably the reason why when dealing with less than static probabilities, one should use a partial Kelly like 1/2 or some other percentage. Joe.

"there is some truth to what timmy says despite the tone" OK, its true! Now what does that have to do with anything and why should it bother anyone? I would like to think that those that are successful do not care if another talks about being successful and also does not wish that...

"Do you guys think that it's enough capital to achieve this goal?" NO, HELL NO. Just do the math with the "expected/required" rate of return, he could own the market in short order. He could "gamble" to make a short run and increase his capital exponentially but to try to do this on an...

"I have no idea where this version of Kelly comes from but to each his own. " It's the same formula just repackaged. It is basically your edge divided by your odds (this form is mostly used for "gambling" propositions IMO). k = (bp - q)/b where f is the fraction of the current...

Using your figures I calculate Kelly as follows: Wagers: 7+5+2=14 Avg wager=14/10= 1.4 Return: 11 per winning wager .2 win % .8 lose % odds= 11/1.4= 7.857 k= (7.857(.2)-.8)/7.857= .098 The problem with the above is that it is based on an average wager of 1.4 but there is the...

"I'm confused about the facts. If the call is about to expire out of the money, how is it worth $2.50 at expiration?" It isn't! Joe.

His brother Dom makes a better product. PS. Don't fight the trend!

The probability of losing 3 trades in a row with a loss rate of 5% is: .000125. Of course a number of single losses amongst few winners is also ruinous to this system but also statistically unlikely if the win/loss ratio is accurate. As far as blowing up in 3 consecutive losses (or other...

Arithmetic, Statistics. the middle number in a given sequence of numbers, taken as the average of the two middle numbers when the sequence has an even number of numbers: 4 is the median of 1, 3, 4, 8, 9. In a list of (100) 100K's and (1) 1 million, the median is $100K. Joe.

207 bc $0. Counterfeit No one would know it was "bc" in 207 bc. Joe.

90 seconds Joe.

What is your definition of "right places"? Joe.

"Is there anything short, concise, and online" Do not look for shortcuts. You will be well-served by learning as much as you can to avoid the many pitfalls of options trading no matter how boring. Joe.

"Just keep trading your own money." Ditto. Joe.

"are you short stock when you sell the puts?" Rarely. My set-up is usually calendar spreads. Joe.

I actually use a strategy by where I sell DITM puts. As soon as the balance of the intrinsic value dries up, the puts are exercised and the stock is put to me every time and prior to expiration. Joe.

"My risk if the position goes against me is then $4,000. This is 4% of the account size. It is way too high. For normal 2% risk I should be buying only 500 shares." How can you guarantee that your loss will only be $4,000? The hard part in using Kelly is "knowing" the "true" edge. As gbos...

f = (bp - q)/b where f is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager; b is the odds received on the wager; p is the probability of winning; q is the probability of losing, which is 1 − p. The above is the Kelly formula. It is basically your edge divided by your odds...

"I'm just amazed that so many dumb people can congregate and no one else ever really seems amazed that a majority of people on this site probably don't know the different between "your" and "you're."" difference :eek: No one should accept any info from a message board at face value...