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Think "bookie". Not much difference IMO.

When exactly did you say to sell AAPL and GOOG?

What expiration month depends on when you think it will double, this month, next month, six months etc. Once you have the month, then you can determine the strike based upon expectation calculations. Please understand it is a lot more complicated then what I am about to write and there is...

Agreed! What you wrote above is the ground zero that needs to be resolved IMO.

Rant? Bear Stearns, beginning of the week, all is fine, leave your money in BS, end of the week, going out of business sale. Your scenario makes the leap that you "know" which institutions are going to stay in business and which will not. Frankly, I do not have those smarts (but neither...

So you invest for lower returns? How many talking heads came on the air to say how some of these institutions were just fine and then a week later they had to be "saved"? Are you suggesting that individual investors that do not have access to all the available information and/or tools or...

I do understand. No one passed the buck, "they" didn't do their job (at least not to any reasonable measure)!!! Does an insurance company sell term life insurance to terminal cancer patients for the rates of a healthy 20 year-old? My point was, that my or anyone else's wanting the best return...

I don't agree with this. In what way was the economy worse? In those other times there were definitely pockets of problems but not country-wide (no pun intended). All one needs to do is to notice all the stores closing, the number of homes for sale and/or in foreclosure, the lack of customers...

Do you count EE bonds as cash?

While there is truth in the weakening economy, there are other factors that help decide which dealerships close. Up until a few years ago I think I was one of the last die-hard US auto purchasers. I would only purchase US cars and mostly GM. I had noticed in the past decade that the...

Of course it depends on how you define "works". Yes, this will "work" but only on a limited basis. Will it provide free-wheeling capital again? No. In addition, will this be a no cost "bailout"? Again, no. As much as possible, those that have helped to create this mess as well as those...

The hardest thing to learn about trading IMO is how to take a loss. If you don't learn that, you are gone.

This works only if the Treasury is able to break even on the purchased mortgages. But how will that be accomplished? Will the Treasury be buying all the questionable mortgage paper at a deep enough discount to break even on resale as well as pay the interest to the bond holders? This...

Why 8000? Joe.

and so does his sister but Orlando, FL is a fine place to be, just not in a $13 hotel room. Joe.

Yes!!! Your rationalization of why you are losing tells me that you really don't understand the "game" that you are playing, you have no "edge". Get out before you lose the rest of your money. That doesn't mean that you can't dabble and try to figure out an edge, just not full-time and...

When do I sell? Joe.

Kelly is being bastardized by the writer. The writer is calculating the % to invest based on a stop which is not reality. As you correctly point out, a gap down is not accounted for the way the % was figured. Kelly is simply your edge divided by your risk (odds). Adding other assumed...

I think you are misunderstanding the Kelly formula. There would never be an instance where Kelly would tell you to use more than your existing bankroll and the only time you would use 100% of your bankroll would be on a certainty (a real certainty, not an assumed certainty). Joe.

Unfortunately when this topic is discussed, not everyone is using the same and/or understands the meaning of zero-sum. Zero-sum is not the same as expectation. The lottery can be considered zero-sum minus a very healthy rake by the State making it a negative expectation for the player...