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You're not getting my point. Think of it this way. You have been relatively conservative, lived modestly and saved $1000 (although you have been saving less recently), but then your shop closes and you get fired. In the meantime, the town you live in has been circling the drain and you know...

I do G3 interest rates and I use Matlab for most of my analytics at the moment. Would be happy to participate...

Japan is a VERY screwed up country. Household savings rate that people always mention as a saving grace for Japan isn't gonna help. BTW, Japan's debt-to-GDP is more like 180% if you include FILP and other quasi-govt issues.

That before or after the USD joins the race to the bottom?

Wow, a neo-Luddite movement!!!! Next thing you know we're gonna start breaking the robots and quoting Malthus again! Isn't this sorta question normally addressed in MacroEcon 101 (see Miles and Scott, Section 6.5)? The main counter to the argument is that advances in technology don't...

TCE is key, because other bits of Tier 1 capital (hybrids) are only loss-bearing in the event of liquidation. Since liquidation, at least in the cases we're talking about, is a thing of the past, TCE is actually the only proper loss-bearing capital. The moral of the story is that if you're...

I think he's right... Ultimately, the real productivity kick has to come from China and the rest of EM. If/when they get over the financing/liquidity shock, that's where the engine of growth is that will bail out the mature economies. And yes, banks managed to export their stuff to the whole...

This is old news and all priced in. The monoline "AAA" (yeah, right) wrappers are worthless.

Seeing as how C/BAC have a few assets themselves, you might have a while to wait yet.

There's some statistical evidence (I forget the paper) that mkt participants generally underestimate the length of economic cycles. I would therefore tend to agree with a longer estimate.

Check this out... Food for thought, in't it? Now we know where all this inflation is coming from :).

Check this out! It would be super funny, if it weren't quite so sad... 'World Finance' named Allen Stanford 'Man of the Year' in December. http://www.worldfinance.com/news/home/magazinearticles/article488.html

Don't be silly... What do you expect the President of the European Central Bank to say? 'I hereby declare that one of the countries within the Eurozone is the weakest link. And guess who the lucky winner is? Yes, it's Ireland, everyone!'

Ooooops, ze Germans are repudiating it now... 11:17 20Feb2009 RTRS-GERMAN FINANCE MINISTRY SAYS SPIEGEL REPORT ON EURO BOND ISSUES DOES NOT CORRESPOND WITH FACTS 11:18 20Feb2009 RTRS-GERMAN FINANCE MINISTRY SAYS NOT WORKING ON CONCEPTS DESCRIBED IN SPIEGEL ARTICLE 11:18 20Feb2009...

Here's what I'm talking about: 10:07 20Feb09 RTRS-GERMANY STUDYING POSSIBLE RESCUE MEASURES FOR OTHER EURO ZONE STATES IN FINANCIAL TROUBLE 10:08 20Feb09 RTRS-POSSIBLE GERMAN RESCUE MEASURES INCLUDE "BILATERAL BOND" FOR EURO ZONE STATES IN TROUBLE 10:10 20Feb09 RTRS-GERMANY ALSO LOOKING AT...

This is a well-known behavioural finance result. Another one I really like is the one about the overconfidence bias exhibited by men ('Boys will be Boys' by Odean and Barber). I wonder what percentage of Doug's new recruits are single males. If they're a large proportion of his sample, he...

The PIIGS tightened quite a lot yesterday, so looks like Ireland, Greece and the others might be OK, after all. Besides, the Germans are making various noises that they will step in to prop up EU sovereigns if need be. Slovenia (Aa2/AA/AA) was a very interesting case earlier this month...

No offense taken... No, I am not a survivalist type at all. It's just that if I can buy a very cheap hedge for this eventuality, why forego the opportunity? As I said, all that I am trying to achieve here with gold/land is some cheap portfolio diversification. Besides, I just thought it...

Here you go: *FEDS LOCKHART: 'BANK NATIONALISATION `SUBSTANTIALLY' OFF TABLE' *LOCKHART:'UNAWARE' OF SERIOUS WEIGHING OF BANK NATIONALISATION' *LOCKHART 'SAYS DEFLATION A `CONCERN,'...

It's a valid point you make, austin. Doug is selling a cheap call, buy it, write off the premium and you might get huge upside. I was prepared to do exactly that. I have bought the call very cheap in small size, to begin with (arnd 5 mins of my time). In order for me to make a decision...