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  1. M

    China said to want collateral for any new Teassury purchases

    Did anyone think about WHAT you can use to collateralize UST? Real estate in Las Vegas? Or, better yet, some nice subprime RMBS? This is a total absurdity...
  2. M

    Anybody else short US 30 Bond

    Decision might be made at the March meeting, but don't hold your breath, as it's subject to many many many variables. Most important is how the TALF (or more like its new monstrous mutated twin) goes. USTs are further down on the list of priorities than the ABS and MBS programs.
  3. M

    Still nothing changed

    And the unemployment rate and other economic indicators must be some sort of a mirage in this shallow recession? Must be that your data-collection capabilities are superior to anything those silly people at places like the BLS and the ISM are using.
  4. M

    buy and hold long term

    In nominal terms, you might profit... Not so obvious whether the same will be true when you adjust for inflation.
  5. M

    AIG - losses 62 billion . . .

    That's the beauty of selling optionality/insurance! The pain never stops, even when you think you got nothing left to give.
  6. M

    Why Gold has to go down...

    OKI-DOKI, you're no Sherlock then... My sarcasm seems to have been lost on you also, but that's fine too.
  7. M

    Why Gold has to go down...

    Wow, several amazing deductive (or inductive?) leaps all at once. Would love to hear you elaborate on the reasoning behind these amazing conclusions.
  8. M

    How to go long / short small countries?

    Why not short their currencies? Otherwise, buy sovereign CDS on them...
  9. M

    Stephen King IS the horror writer...

    How about this for a dire prediction? Stephen King the economist is increasingly starting to resemble his more famous namesake... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/stephen-king/stephen-king-as-capitalism-stares-into-the-abyss-was-marx-right-all-along-1635162.html
  10. M

    The Largest Run on the Bank ever recorded as evidenced in this post

    What you people need to understand is the horrendous liquidity mismatch that the money mkt funds run. When the Primary Reserve Fund broke the buck, investors suddenly came to their senses and ran for the door and that behavior makes total sense. That's why the Fed had to come out with the...
  11. M

    Pointers about east european crisis?

    The $1.5trn figure is just the exposure of Western European banks to CEE. It's a different question of how much these countries need right now to fund themselves, given the rapidly deteriorating fiscal situation. The Hungarian PM is apparently going to ask for $230bn coordinated help from the...
  12. M

    Canadian Banks

    Even Volcker likes CAD banks... Of course, he gave the speech below in Toronto, so maybe he was just being nice. http://ednews.org/articles/34263/1/VOLCKER-SPEECH-IN-CANADA/Page1.html
  13. M

    Junior Mugabe wipes out student loans market

    I think you're missing the point... Last time I heard SLM and others like it couldn't lend to students, but not because of creditworthiness concerns, but simply because they couldn't securitize the loans, so they can't fund themselves. Provided this is still the case (which it is, I believe)...
  14. M

    Why the contango?

    Read this for an interesting take on the issue... http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/02/25/52879/a-self-propelled-pyramid/
  15. M

    new 3yr?

    I am told launch date is 23rd March
  16. M

    Market bubbles

    It's just human nature. Make a bubble out of anything you like... In fact, how about tulip bulbs? It's an oldie from all the way back in the 17th century, but why not revisit it now.
  17. M

    Chairman Bernanke's martingale strategy

    Evidence points to the contrary. That is, they are indeed doing whatever they have to, but what that 'whatever' is specifically, they have no idea. If you look at the various Fed programs (TALF, MMIFF, etc) and the fiscal stimuli packages, it will become obvious to you that they're playing it...
  18. M

    Japan, Britain and Switzerland All In Deep Trouble

    This is an argument that Faber makes in a recent 'Doom, etc' report. Specifically, if the US decides to enter the race to the bottom and starts devaluing the USD, it may actually help the economy, but it will only work with the cooperation of the lender nations. If they buy the thesis that...
  19. M

    Chairman Bernanke's martingale strategy

    No, I think the govts are pursuing the 'I have no clue what to do here' strategy...
  20. M

    Japan, Britain and Switzerland All In Deep Trouble

    There's nothing wrong with the Swiss and, broadly, their economy, per se. Nothing, that is, apart from a fact that UBS balance sheet is, what, arnd CHF2trn; Credit Suisse is something like CHF1.2trn. Switzerland GDP is something like CHF130bn. You just apply a bit of a haircut to those...
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