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  1. J

    what financial instrument should a newbie start with?

    Stocks. Practice swing trading stocks on the daily chart with small amounts of money. That's probably the easiest form of trading to do. If you decide to jump right in and trade forex or futures intraday you'll probably lose the entire $5000 in short order.
  2. J

    Buying Options before Earnings

    You can use an option calculator to determine the theoretical price of the option on a given day. Plug in the strike, days to expiration, expected value of the underlying, and expected volatility, and you'll get your answer. Do this with several different strikes and see which would give you the...
  3. J

    The no BS, obfuscation-free price action thread

    Here's my attempt to interpret things, using a 15 minute chart and only RTH. First of all, the general context given by the daily chart is bullish. We've been in a strong uptrend since 4/19. Looking at the 15 minute chart, we can identify a trading range roughly bounded by 1645 and 1660 which...
  4. J

    The Green Alpha

    Yes, this journal is funny. It made me laugh. Posting stuff like this over and over again, without discussing the individual trades you've made or the reasons for making them, is of no interest to anyone. Why would anyone want to read it? But whatever, continue on if you wish and I'll...
  5. J

    Since you started trading, have you overally profited?

    No, this: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=116736&perpage=6&pagenumber=1#post1778965
  6. J

    The Green Alpha

    Comedy gold.
  7. J

    Buying Options before Earnings

    The best thing to do might be to wait until after earnings and try to find a good entry point if it looks like the stock is going to be making a sustained move for several days.
  8. J

    Buying Options before Earnings

    Volatility crunch. http://www.optiontradingpedia.com/volatility_crunch.htm
  9. J

    Buying Options before Earnings

    Option prices increase before earnings because of the possibility of a big move after earnings. It's very possible that you're right about the stock, it does go up 10%, but the options are worth less because of the decrease in implied volatility for the options. The nearer to expiration the...
  10. J

    So what will send this rally over the cliff?

    It's interesting that the equities readings are very high but the indices and ETF readings are very low. 09:50 Equities: 343, Indices & ETFs: 28 10:10 Equities: 293, Indices & ETFs: 20 EDIT: Come to think of it, this could just be due to hedging.
  11. J

    So what will send this rally over the cliff?

    This is the one that stuck out for me: 3/9/09 ISEE reading of 220. This was the day that SPX closed at 676.53, which was the bottom (measured by SPX closing value) of the past bear market. That reading of 220 was the highest since 12/20/2005 and it was not surpassed again until 12/10/2010.
  12. J

    New to Options - A Few Questions

    I've read a few books on technical analysis, and the one I recommend is Jack Schwager's Getting Started in Technical Analysis. It's clear and succinct. http://www.amazon.com/Getting-Started-Technical-Analysis-Schwager/dp/0471295426
  13. J

    So what will send this rally over the cliff?

    What do you mean by "minor pullback"? Would that be a pullback of 5%? 10%? There was a 60 point drop in April, but that was only a 3.8% pullback. I take it you're looking for something more?
  14. J

    Guy says when I place a trade, someone else goes short that position, is this true?

    One more thing: when you buy and you're hitting an offer, if the person whose offer you hit is a market maker, it's often likely that he's shorting the shares that you're buying. This isn't because he's necessarily bearish on the stock, but because he doesn't have a supply to sell to buyers. So...
  15. J

    Historical list of S&P500, NASDAQ100 constituents

    This has been discussed previously: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=218065&perpage=6&pagenumber=2
  16. J

    Guy says when I place a trade, someone else goes short that position, is this true?

    The person on the other side of the trade could be either going short or selling shares he already owns -- there's no way for you to know. As far as buying increasing demand, that's not the case. If your buy order gets filled then demand (your portion of it, anyway) has decreased since it's...
  17. J

    A mind game

    Shouldn't that be 67%? Since b = 1, the calculation reduces to p - q = 5/6 - 1/6 = 4/6 = 2/3.
  18. J

    Surfer Alerts

    Why $29.53? What's so special about that number?
  19. J

    ES Trading with Futures Options?

    No, you'd lose a lot on the option bid-ask spread.
  20. J

    A mind game

    You don't get topped off, you start with $500,000 and receive no more after that except your winnings.
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